\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
The energy consumption of raw materials is gradually falling, and the green hydrogen leader is growing. Maintain "buy" rating
The energy consumption of raw materials will not be included in the total energy consumption control, which will be gradually implemented in all provinces, and the policy is expected to be refined at the provincial level. The international spot coal price has risen sharply. China's spot coal price is limited by policies, and there is a large price difference between China's coal price and the international coal price. Under the high oil price, the cost advantage of coal to olefin is prominent compared with oil to olefin. The coal chemical industry is coupled with green hydrogen and green oxygen, and the emission reduction efficiency is obvious. With the gradual maturity of the carbon trading mechanism, the benefits of the company's green hydrogen project are obvious. As the leader of green hydrogen, the company is in the production capacity release period, coal chemical industry and green hydrogen work together, and its performance is expected to grow steadily. According to the promotion of new production capacity, changes in products and coal prices, we maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 8.05/109.0/18.23 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 13.8% / 35.4% / 67.3%; EPS is 1.10/1.49/2.49 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price, and PE is 13.9/10.3/6.1 times. The company benefited from the coal price limit and the relaxation of the policy on raw material energy consumption. In the future, the production capacity will be significantly improved, with high growth, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
The carbon emission target of 60% - 70% can be saved in raw material energy consumption, and the approval of olefin project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be accelerated
All raw material energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption, which can save 60-70% of the carbon emission index. The implementation of raw material energy consumption is conducive to the approval of olefin projects in Inner Mongolia, and the policy is conducive to the development of coal chemical enterprises. Henan, Liaoning and Zhejiang have successively implemented the energy consumption "double control" management change policy. After the two sessions, the policy is expected to be refined in Inner Mongolia and other energy consuming provinces, which is conducive to the approval of coal chemical projects and capacity expansion. In the future, coal chemical industry will focus on four coal chemical industry demonstration parks, of which Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) has a raw coal output of nearly 700 million tons / year, which is the place with the greatest growth potential of China's coal chemical industry Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) Inner Mongolia 4 million T / a coal to olefin is located in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) demonstration area. The project benefits the most and is expected to accelerate. After the Inner Mongolia project is put into operation, it will help the company's performance take off again.
The coal price is limited, and the oil price center is expected to remain high, highlighting the cost comparative advantage
On the cost side, China's spot coal price is subject to policy restrictions. The company's coal suppliers are mainly large state-owned enterprises, and the coal purchase price is more vulnerable to policy guidance. In the future, China's coal price will maintain a large price difference with the international coal price. On the product side, the oil price center is expected to remain high. Olefin products are priced by the oil head route, and the probability rate also remains high. Compared with large refining and chemical enterprises, the cost of the latter rises sharply due to the market-oriented pricing of crude oil, which highlights the comparative advantage of coal to olefin cost and significantly enhances the profitability of the company.
Coal chemical industry coupled with green hydrogen, low carbon emission reduction and carbon neutralization
Coal chemical industry is coupled with green hydrogen to replace water gas change reaction and reduce the scale of air separation unit. The coupling process will greatly reduce carbon emission. At the same time, it will enable the same chemical coal to produce more chemical products, and the effect of emission reduction and efficiency is very obvious. The company's green hydrogen production capacity is expected to reach 48000 T / A in 2022 and 263000 T / A in 2030. With the formation of carbon trading mechanism, the carbon trading market will quantify the benefits of carbon emission reduction, and the price of carbon emission quota is expected to rise. From 2025 to 2030, the cost center of the company's green hydrogen project is expected to be 0.8 yuan / standard square meter, and the cost of coal to hydrogen is conservatively estimated at 0.9 yuan / standard square meter. The benefit center of the company's green hydrogen project will be 840 million yuan / year in 2025 and 3.1 billion yuan / year in 2030.
Risk tips: the risk of falling product prices, the risk of rising raw material prices, and the risk of new projects falling short of expectations.
