\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 176 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) )
Core view
The performance hit a record high, and the profit from the sale of precious metals increased. The company released its 2021 annual report. The annual revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 19.71/6.03 billion and yoy + 68.9% / 149.5% respectively, creating the best performance in history. Among them, the 21q4 income and net profit attributable to the parent company were 5.87/1.72 billion, yoy + 54.9% / 51.7%. 21q4 management expense was 680 million, yoy + 449.4%. We judged that it was mainly due to the withdrawal of excess profits. Excluding the provision for excess profits, we expect the net profit generated by the company's operating activities in 21 years to exceed 6.7 billion yuan. In addition, through technological innovation, reducing the use of rhodium powder and selling precious metals, the company realized a disposal income of 690 million yuan.
The volume and price of main products have risen simultaneously. In 21 years, the sales volume of glass fiber products and electronic cloth of the company reached 2.353 million tons / 440 million meters respectively, yoy + 12.8% / 16.4%. We estimate that the sales of the above two types of products in 2021q4 are 676000 tons (QoQ + 17.6%) and 100 million meters (qoq-18.3%) respectively. According to Zhuo Chuang database, the average price of alkali free glass fiber coarse sand in 21 years is 7665 yuan / ton, an increase of 2165 yuan / ton compared with 20 years, and the price of electronic yarn increases more. The average price in 21 years is 15543 yuan / ton, an increase of 7234 yuan / ton compared with 20 years, which corresponds to the price of downstream electronic cloth.
Continuous release of production capacity, cost reduction, efficiency increase and structural optimization. In the 21st year, the company successively put into operation Tongxiang intelligent line 3 / 4 / intelligent electronic line 2, and has increased the production capacity of 150000 / 150000 / 60000 tons respectively. In 22-23 years, the company will also build Chengdu intelligent line 3 / Tongxiang intelligent electronic line 3 / Egypt glass fiber production line / Jiujiang new base, which will release 150000 / 10 / 12 / 400000 tons of production capacity respectively. In terms of output, the market share is expected to further increase. In 21 years, the company's high-end products accounted for more than 80%, and E9 ultra-high modulus glass fiber achieved mass production. In the future, the company will continue to cultivate in high-end fields such as thermosetting roving / thermoplastic short cutting / electronic thin cloth.
The industry is expected to maintain a tight balance, and the cyclical attribute is expected to gradually weaken. In the context of double carbon, the threshold of new production lines in the industry has been significantly raised, and the new production capacity is limited, and it is basically supplied by industry leaders. On the demand side, with the liberalization of the epidemic, overseas demand has gradually warmed up, and downstream industries such as wind power / Electronics / household appliances / automobile have continued to grow. The upward cycle of this round of glass fiber boom has lasted from September 20 to now, because 1. The supply increment mainly comes from China, while China and foreign countries have increased demand at the same time; 2. The increase of transportation costs / tariffs / energy prices and other force majeure force the increase of production costs, which has a strong support for prices. Therefore, we judge that the glass fiber boom will continue, and the upward cycle of glass fiber is expected to be prolonged
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Adjust the EPS of 22-24 years to 1.58/1.66/1.81 yuan (original value of 1.56/1.71 yuan), mainly reducing the average price of electronic cloth. As the absolute leader of the glass fiber industry, the company leads the reform of the industry, the proportion of high-end products continues to increase, and the growth is determined. Referring to the PE valuation center in the past six years, but considering the high performance base, the performance growth center will decline in the next three years. We give the company a 25% valuation discount, recognize the company's 22-year 15x PE, corresponding to the target price of 23.76 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the price of electronic cloth fell more than expected, the epidemic affected logistics more than expected, and the price of roving fell more than expected
