\u3000\u30003 Ygsoft Inc(002063) 00206)
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.6%. The performance is in line with our expectations.
Under the background of high base, the decline in the income of anti epidemic products dragged down the overall performance: the epidemic situation in China stabilized in 2021, and the income of anti epidemic products such as monitors, which grew explosively due to the epidemic situation in the early stage, fell rapidly, which led to the overall decline of the company's performance: the company's patient monitoring business achieved a revenue of 599 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.3%, which seriously dragged down the overall performance growth of the company. Excluding the impact of the epidemic, the compound growth rate of the company's operating revenue from 2019 to 2021 reached 20%. In 2021, the company's sales expense was 323 million yuan (+ 5.91%, year-on-year, the same below), and the sales expense ratio was 19.72% (+ 2.24pp); The management expense is 105 million yuan (+ 4.01%), and the management expense rate is 6.40% (+ 2.06pp). In 2021, the company's overall gross profit margin was 55.97%, down 3.44 percentage points.
Non anti epidemic products grew steadily, and businesses such as ultrasound and intelligent medical treatment performed well: in 2021, the company's businesses except monitors achieved positive growth. By category, ECG diagnosis business achieved a revenue of 278 million yuan (+ 19.95%); Ultrasound imaging business achieved a revenue of 183 million yuan (+ 40.10%); The revenue of maternal and child health business was 265 million yuan (+ 18.30%); The in vitro diagnosis business achieved an operating revenue of 248 million yuan (+ 16.37%), and the intelligent medical business also increased significantly. Among them, ultrasound, maternal and child, intelligent medical and other businesses have performed well. For example, ultrasound imaging business has successfully got rid of the impact of the epidemic, and the overall sector has recovered rapidly; In the maternal and child health business, the shipment of sd1 products in Doppler fetal heart has exceeded 120000 units in 2021; In the field of information technology in hospitals, we have completed the construction of information network in over 3000 medical institutions / clinical departments, and helped nearly 300 medical institutions provide health management services and remote diagnosis and treatment services in the "Internet plus" medical service.
R & D investment will be increased, and many new products will be put into the market: in 2021, the company further increased R & D investment, with R & D expenses of 252 million yuan (+ 15.7%), and R & D expense rate of 15.41% (+ 6.01pp). The long-term and sustained high R & D investment has entered the harvest period. In 2021, the company released strategic new products such as se-1202 digital 12 channel ECG, full stack intelligent medical ultrasound acclarixlx9super, h60s automatic blood cell analyzer and so on. It has been widely recognized by many medical institutions, including Beijing Union Medical College Hospital. The company continues to launch strategic new products, which is expected to work with other products successively launched in recent years to continuously broaden the company's moat and accelerate to seize market share.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the slowdown in the demand for overseas anti epidemic equipment, we will reduce the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 from 813 / 1011 million yuan to 350 million / 456 million yuan. It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 587 million yuan. The corresponding valuations of the current market value are 18 times, 14 times and 11 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the product development fails to meet the expectations; The risk of intensified market competition; Risks of exchange rate fluctuations, etc
