\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 305 Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) )
Event overview. On March 23, the company released its annual report for 21 years. In 2021, the revenue reached 3.023 billion yuan, an increase of 85.77% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 410 million yuan, an increase of 24.16% at the same time. The gross profit margin was 24.1%, down 8.8pct; The net interest rate was 13.6%, down 6.8pct. The revenue of 21q4 was 1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 93.5% and a ring increase of 26.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 81 million yuan, down 20.2% and 32.8% respectively; The gross profit margin was 18.3%, with a ring down of 4.9pct; The net interest rate was 8.0%, down 7pct.
Capacity + products continue to expand. Production capacity: with the production of No. 6-7 plant in 22 years, the output value will further increase. According to the input-output ratio of 1.3-1.5, the long-term output value of Ningbo No. 1-9 plant + Nanxun plant will reach more than 10 billion in the future. The current capacity utilization rate of the company is full, and it is expected to maintain full production and sales in the future. Products: expand horizontally from die casting. The capacity of aluminum forging (steering knuckle, thermal management system valve sector batch supply) continues to release, and the revenue scale of forging products is expected to climb rapidly; In terms of aluminum extrusion, in addition to adding a number of fixed points for battery pack shell parts, the projects under research include anti-collision beam, threshold beam, subframe, battery pack box and other products; In terms of integrated die casting, the company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Haitian metal on giant die casting machine, and is increasing the research and development of body structural parts and integrated products.
The diversification of customers has been steadily promoted. The proportion of Tesla‘s shipments in 21 years dropped 4pct to 40% compared with that in 20 years, further reducing the dependence on a single major customer. The rest of lucid, rivian, etc. are expected to have a large volume this year. At the same time, there are all terrain off-road vehicle enterprises Polaris, ZF, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other customers.
Aluminum prices remain high, affecting profitability, and the price adjustment is expected to bring about a rebound in profitability. The price of aluminum has risen from 15000 / ton at the beginning of 21 years to more than 20000 / ton recently. We expect that the company’s 21q3 product corresponds to 18000 / ton of aluminum and 21q4 corresponds to 20000 / ton of aluminum, resulting in a decline in gross profit margin. The interest of convertible bonds accrued in 21q4 is about 2.5 million, and the annual exchange profit and loss affects 15 million. Most of the Q4 accrual brings the Q4 financial expense rate upward. Looking ahead, considering the price negotiation mechanism of the automobile industry, the company has completed price adjustment with most customers, and the gross profit margin in 22 years is likely to recover.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.478 billion yuan, 6.195 billion yuan and 8.539 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48%, 38% and 38% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company will be 591 million yuan, 887 million yuan and 1.305 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43%, 50% and 47% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 26, 17 and 12 times the price earnings ratio of 22-24 years respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: risks with high customer concentration; Risk of tax policy change in export market; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
