\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Event:
According to Longzhong information, in March 2022, an uncontrollable equipment failure occurred in the MDI device of BASF’s gasmar plant in Louisiana, affecting the operation capacity of the plant. BASF announced that force majeure would take effect immediately for a variety of MDI and products containing MDI. At present, it is actively repairing. At present, it is predicted that the production interruption will last about 3 weeks. On March 22, 2021, the official website of Meishan Municipal People’s Government publicized the environmental impact assessment of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Sichuan) 75000 T / a polylactic acid integration project for the first time. The company plans to build 75000 T / a polylactic acid production capacity and other supporting facilities in Meishan, Sichuan.
Key investment points:
In case of force majeure, MDI supply of BASF us plant will be tight
Recently, foreign MDI devices have encountered force majeure, while Japan and South Korea have maintenance plans for MDI devices, and MDI supply will be tight. Among them, according to Longzhong information, an uncontrollable equipment failure occurred in the MDI device of BASF us plant in March, affecting the operation capacity of the plant. It is predicted that the production interruption will last about 3 weeks. The existing MDI capacity of BASF us plant is 400000 tons / year, accounting for 4.13% of the total global capacity. Meanwhile, according to Baichuan information, a unit in Japan has a maintenance plan from April to may, and the 410000 T / a MDI unit in Jinhu, South Korea also has a maintenance plan from May to June. There is an increase in force majeure superimposed maintenance, and there is no new capacity in the world recently. It is expected that the global MDI supply will be tight in the future, and the MDI price is expected to increase Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is currently the largest MDI supplier in the world. By the end of 2021, the company has an MDI production capacity of 2.65 million tons / year, accounting for 27.35% of the total global production capacity. At present, the company’s devices in China and Europe are operating normally. With the tightening of global MDI supply and demand, Wanhua will make good profits.
The price of natural gas has increased significantly, and the price of polyurethane in Europe has increased one after another
Affected by geopolitics and other factors, the recent sharp rise in European natural gas prices has brought great pressure on downstream chemicals on the cost side. The MDI production capacity in Europe represented by BASF and Huntsman is mainly produced downward with natural gas as raw material. In the context of rising natural gas prices, MDI production costs have also increased significantly, and price adjustments have been announced since March. Among them, Huntsman announced on March 9 that the company was forced to impose a natural gas surcharge of 300 euros per ton on MDI, polyether, additives and catalyst products sold in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and India, with immediate effect; BASF also announced on March 15 that affected by the price of European raw materials, in order to ensure the feasibility of production, the company was forced to implement further major price adjustments for all polyurethane products from April 1.
The environmental impact assessment of 75000 tons of polylactic acid was publicized, and the degradable materials were deeply arranged in Meishan base
On March 22, 2021, the official website of Meishan Municipal People’s Government publicized the environmental impact assessment of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Sichuan) 75000 T / a polylactic acid integration project for the first time. The company plans to build 75000 T / a polylactic acid production capacity and other supporting facilities in Meishan, Sichuan. Polylactic acid, also known as polylactide, is a polyester polymer polymerized with lactic acid as the main raw material. It is a new biodegradable material. Under the background of stricter plastic limit policy, there is a large market space in the future. In addition to polylactic acid, the company has also arranged 60000 T / a PBAT in Meishan base, and the project has been put into trial production at the end of 2021; At the same time, the company also has a supporting layout of 100000 t / a natural gas alkyne aldehyde BDO capacity. When the project is put into operation, it will be self-sufficient in raw materials and show its integration advantages.
TDI supply will remain tight, and it is optimistic that the TDI boom will continue
Affected by tight supply, TDI prices have continued to rise since 2022. According to wind, as of March 23, the average market price of Q1 TDI in 2022 reached 1867378 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 26.16% and a month on month increase of 27.64%; The price difference between TDI and toluene reached 1224544 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 34.94% and a month on month increase of 39.49%. Meanwhile, according to Baichuan information, the 80000 ton unit of Juli chemical Yantai was shut down for maintenance; Restart time of Gansu Yinguang 100000 ton unit to be determined; Storage and maintenance plan of Shanghai keschuang device in April; Shanghai BASF plant is scheduled to be overhauled in May, and the supply will remain tight in the future. We are optimistic that the TDI boom will continue. At present, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has a TDI capacity of 650000 tons / year, which will fully benefit from the prosperity of the industry. Meanwhile, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) invested 1.927 billion yuan to build a 250000 T / a TDI expansion project in Fujian Industrial Park. The project was started on February 7, 2022 and is expected to be put into operation in 2023. With the steady expansion of TDI capacity, the company’s competitiveness and voice in TDI industry will continue to increase.
Profit forecast and investment rating predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be RMB 26579, 30.921 and 35.242 billion respectively, and EPS will be RMB 847, 9.85 and 11.22 per share, corresponding to PE of 9, 8 and 7 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The implementation of risk warning policies, the construction progress of new production capacity is not up to expectations, the contribution performance of new production capacity is not up to expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuates, the change of environmental protection policies, the economy drops sharply, and the price of crude oil fluctuates sharply.
