\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 865 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 8.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.15%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.055 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.92%.
Q4 performance was under pressure in the short term, and the gross profit margin fell month on month. 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 403 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.67%. The supply of 20q4 and 21q1 photovoltaic glass is tight, and the price and profit are at a high level. The demand for 21q4 photovoltaic terminals is lower than expected, the module factory is in the state of de inventory, and the price of soda ash, the company’s main raw material, is at a high level, putting pressure on short-term profits. The comprehensive gross profit margin of 21q4 company was 17.91%, which decreased significantly on a month on month basis. 22q1 photovoltaic demand rebounded strongly due to the rush loading before tariff increase in India and deferred demand in China. At present, the company has sufficient orders, the price of 3-volt glass has also increased, and the subsequent profit is expected to increase.
High quality production capacity continued to be released, and the revenue of photovoltaic glass increased significantly. In 2021, the photovoltaic glass business achieved a revenue of 7.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.28%; The gross profit margin was 35.70%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.22pp. The sales volume of photovoltaic glass was 265 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 43.17%. In 2021, the company put into operation five photovoltaic glass kilns, with a melting capacity of 12200 tons by the end of the year. The third and fourth phases of the company’s Anhui production base are under construction, and it is planned to build four photovoltaic glass kilns with a daily melting capacity of 1200 tons in Nantong. It is expected that the daily melting capacity of the company will reach 20600 tons and 30200 tons by the end of 2022 and 2023 respectively. Engineering glass achieved a revenue of 711 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.07%; The gross profit margin was 33.02%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.35pp. The revenue of float glass was 394 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 420.18%; The gross profit margin was 38.84%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.03pp. Household glass revenue was 381 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.60%; The gross profit margin was 30.72%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.46pp.
Quartz sand is arranged upstream to lock in high-quality and low-cost raw materials. Recently, the company completed 100% equity of Dahua mining and 100% equity of Sanli mining. Dahua mining and Sanli mining have 500000 T / A and 1.9 million T / a respectively. The two companies are going through the formalities to expand the production scale to 2.6 million T / A and 4 million T / A. With the further investment of the company’s production capacity and the layout of quartz sand resources in the upstream, it will help the company lock in the supply of raw materials and further expand its cost advantage.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.91 billion, 4.025 billion and 4.977 billion respectively. At present, the price of photovoltaic glass is in the bottom range. It is expected that this year’s photovoltaic demand will be strong and the company’s cost advantage will be obvious. If the subsequent price increases, it will bring greater performance flexibility. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the production expansion progress is lower than expected; The permeability of double glass components is lower than expected; Rising raw material costs.
