\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. The total operating revenue was 21.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.67%. Among them, the single quarter revenue of 2021q4 was 5.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 787 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 7.95%.
The layout of one body and two wings continued to deepen, the gypsum board and waterproof increased steadily, and the keel scale developed rapidly. The revenue of gypsum board / keel / waterproof building materials increased by + 25.94% / + 40.32% / + 16.17% respectively year-on-year. As of the disclosure date of the annual report: in terms of gypsum board, the market share of the company was about 68% (based on sales volume) in 21 years; In terms of keel, the company's light steel keel has a total capacity of 488000 tons, ranking as the world's largest light steel keel industry group; In terms of waterproof business, the company has promoted the layout of 15 waterproof material production bases, and the scale ranks in the forefront of the industry. The gross profit margin of gypsum board / keel / waterproof roll is 37.26% / 18.43% / 27.35% respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 1.36pct / - 6.25pct / - 9.33pct respectively. During the reporting period, the price transmission of gypsum board is good, while the keel and waterproof roll are affected by the price rise of bulk raw materials, and the gross profit is under pressure.
Q4 gross profit margin increased month on month, and Adversity shows its heroic nature. The gross profit margin of Q4 sales of the company was 31.91%, up 3.62 percentage points month on month. It is mainly due to the increase in the price of Q4 gypsum board products. Q4 can still conduct cost changes, improve profitability month on month, and maintain steady growth in revenue, reflecting the strong bargaining power of the company under the high market share.
Operating cash flow increased significantly year-on-year and maintained high-quality development. As a cash cow business, the main business of gypsum board of the company focuses on the distribution mode, and has maintained excellent business quality for a long time. In 2021, the net cash flow from operating activities of the company was 3.831 billion yuan, a significant increase of 1.992 billion yuan over the same period of last year. The net cash flow from the operating activities of the waterproof building materials segment was -122 million yuan, compared with -493 million yuan in the same period of 20 years. At the end of the period, the balance of accounts receivable and notes receivable of the company was 2.098 billion yuan, compared with 1.97 billion yuan in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of only 6.52%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the further deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises, under the guidance of the company's strategy of "one body, two wings and global layout", the market share of the main industry of gypsum board in the world will continue to increase, and the keel supporting, waterproof and coating businesses will also contribute to the continuous rapid increase. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be + 16.6% / + 11.0% / + 10.9% year-on-year respectively, and the corresponding PE is 12x / 11x / 10x respectively. For the first time, give the company a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: real estate industry fluctuation risk, macroeconomic fluctuation risk, raw material and energy price rise risk, new business development less than expected risk
