Core view
The National Bureau of statistics officially released the retail data of social consumer goods from January to February 2022 on March 15. From January to February 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 6730.5 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%. Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to February actually increased by 4.9% year-on-year.
Social zero has recovered significantly, and the vitality of consumption recovery has emerged. In the face of the complex and severe international environment and multiple tests such as the spread of the epidemic in China, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all regions and departments have earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, scientifically coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, adhered to the principle of stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability, sustained and stable recovery of the national economy, and new progress has been made in high-quality development. From January to February in 2022, the social zero increased by 6.7% year-on-year, the growth rate increased by 5.0pct month on month, and consumption recovered significantly. In terms of regions, the growth rate in rural areas continues to be higher than that in cities and towns: from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods in cities and towns increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and that in rural areas increased by 7.1% year-on-year. In terms of classification, commodities have increased steadily, and catering has recovered significantly: from January to February, the total retail sales of commodities increased by 6.5% year-on-year, of which the total retail sales of commodities of units above the quota increased by 9.1% year-on-year; The total catering retail sales increased by 8.9% year-on-year, of which the total catering retail sales of units above the quota increased by 10.1% year-on-year.
The required option is relatively stable, and the optional option is to benefit from the recovery of consumption. The growth rate of compulsory consumption was relatively stable. From January to February, it was 10.7% for daily necessities, 11.4% for beverages, 7.9% for grain, oil and food, 13.6% for tobacco and alcohol, and 7.5% for drugs. The growth rate of tobacco and alcohol increased month on month. Except for daily necessities, the decline rate of other categories was small month on month, and remained stable as a whole. Optional consumption benefited from the pick-up in consumption. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rates were clothing 4.8%, cosmetics 7.0%, jewelry 19.5%, home appliances 10.7%, cultural office 11.1%, furniture – 6.0%, communication 4.8%, petroleum products 25.6%, automobile 3.9%, and building and decoration materials 6.2%. Except for real estate related furniture and construction, the growth rates of other categories increased month on month, including jewelry and home appliances increased by 19.7pct and 18.7pct respectively.
Benefiting from the e-commerce annual goods Festival, online growth performance exceeded expectations. From January to February, the cumulative retail sales of online food, clothing and use goods increased by 12.7%, 3.9% and 15.1% year-on-year. From January to February, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3%, accounting for 22.0% of the total retail sales of the society (Mom – 2.5pct). According to the express data disclosed by the State Post Office, the number of express tickets in January and February increased by 3.3% (Mom – 7.5pct) and 49.7% (mom + 46.4pct) year on year. The total number of express tickets from January to February increased by 19.6% (mom + 8.9pct), corresponding to a year-on-year decrease of 5.0% (mom + 3PCT) in e-commerce ASP from January to February. We believe that benefiting from the e-commerce annual goods Festival, online growth exceeded expectations in February. According to the data of Baiguan technology, tmall and JD Gmv increased by 10% year-on-year in January 2022, and the growth rate slowed down compared with the same period in 2021. On the one hand, it reflects the increase of the share of competition vs. buffeting in the same period. On the other hand, it shows that the performance of e-commerce is relatively weak in January, which can be confirmed by the growth of express tickets of only 3.3%. However, benefiting from the stimulation of the February new year goods Festival, online growth rebounded significantly in February, and the number of express tickets increased significantly by 49.7% year-on-year. We believe that the relatively weak online performance in January did not last until February. Under the general trend of the recovery of consumption, the online growth returned to a more ideal level, which played a significant role in driving the overall growth of social zero. Investment proposal and investment object
Recommend the head e-commerce platform pinduoduo (PDD. O, buy), JD group SW (09618, buy), Alibaba SW (09988, buy); Recommend new content business platform Kwai -W (01024, buy); Recommend meituan-w (03690, buy), the leading e-commerce provider of local life services; In the e-commerce industry chain, Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) ( Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) , buy) is recommended, and Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ( Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) , not rated) is recommended.
Risk tips
Epidemic impact; Macroeconomic fluctuations; The recovery of consumption is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies
