In the first two months, exports performed well, and overseas demand outside India
Maintain high growth rate
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the export volume of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries (components) from January to February reached 20.6 billion yuan / 26.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 105% / 114% in the same month, a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 110% from January to February, and a month on month growth rate of about 26% in February. Considering that the component price has increased by about 20% year-on-year, the export volume of 1-2 kV components is expected to increase by 75% (in GW), which is basically consistent with the 73% growth rate in weight disclosed by the General Administration of customs. According to the statistics of PV InfoLink, China’s total exports of components in 2021 reached 88.8gw, with a year-on-year increase of 35%, of which 10.7gw were exported from January to February 2021, and China’s exports of components are expected to reach 18.7gw from January to February 2022. In the same period last year, the number of modules exported to the Indian market was small. Due to the increase of import tariff rate of modules and batteries in April, the Indian market continued to rush to install this year. In the first two months, the export of photovoltaic modules (batteries) to the Indian market reached US $2.04 billion, accounting for about 27.9% of the export volume. Ignoring price factors, it is expected that the export of modules (batteries) to the Indian market will reach 5.2gw, and the export volume of India will reach 13.5gw, an increase of 40% year-on-year, Overseas demand outside India remains strong.
Overseas market demand shows strong resilience, reaching 250260gw under the optimistic situation of global demand
Since 2021, non-technical costs have continued to rise. In addition to the 20% increase in the price of components, the sea freight has increased significantly. The price of 40 foot high container containers has exceeded 10000 US dollars. The prices of several routes in Europe and the United States have increased by 5-10 times, and the freight price is about 0.27-0.28 yuan / W, accounting for about 15-18% of the total value. Even under this background, the overseas market still shows a high acceptance of photovoltaic, The demand side shows strong resilience in the case of rising costs. After the Russian Ukrainian war, Europe plans to get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas and accelerate the development of renewable energy. After the rise of energy prices, overseas acceptance of component prices has increased. These factors are not reflected in the export data of 1-2 moonlight volt components.
We believe that the overseas demand is expected to further increase. Previously, we expected that the global PV installed capacity will be 230gw in 2022. There is a large potential demand in the world, especially in the overseas market. The decline of silicon material price is expected to bring the demand higher than expected. Under optimistic circumstances, the global PV installed capacity is expected to reach 250260gw in 2022.
We are optimistic about: 1) integrated components, focusing on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Jingke energy; 2) Photovoltaic glass, focusing on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (A / h) and Xinyi solar energy; 3) The investment opportunities brought by the new technology of n-type TOPCON focus on Jingke energy and Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , and maintain the “overweight” rating for the power equipment industry.
Risk tips
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise of raw material prices, lower than expected downstream demand, risk of intensified industry competition, systemic risk of the market, performance failure of recommended companies, etc
