From January to February, the total transaction area of Baicheng land was – 22%, and the average transaction price was – 51%; Mainstream real estate enterprises were cautious in obtaining land, and the value of newly added land of top 50 real estate enterprises rebounded slightly month on month
From January to February 2022, the land transaction and construction area of Baicheng was 160 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 22.3%; The total transaction price was 213.2 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 61.5%; The average transaction price was 1301 yuan / m2, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 50.5%. From January to February 2022, the budgeted income of local government funds at the same level was 855.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.7%, of which the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 792.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5%.
According to Kerui’s statistics, in February 2022, the new land value (land acquisition amount) of top 50 real estate enterprises totaled 73.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.3% and a month on month increase of 6.6%; The total new land construction area of top 50 real estate enterprises was 5038000 square meters, down 83.3% year-on-year and 69.6% month on month.
The urban differentiation of land transaction level intensifies. Affected by the centralized land supply, the average land transaction price in first tier cities has increased significantly
According to the urban energy level, in February 2022, the transaction and construction areas of the first, second and third and fourth lines of land in 100 cities were 3.97 million square meters, 19.43 million square meters and 45.07 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 32.9%, – 37.4% and – 14.7% respectively. The total transaction price was 50.8 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan and 29.5 billion yuan respectively, with – 32.3%, – 78.4% and – 64.5% year-on-year in a single month. The average transaction price was 12802 yuan / m2, 1130 yuan / m2 and 654 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.9%, – 65.4% and – 58.3% respectively. Among them, affected by the first round of centralized land supply in Beijing in 2022, the average land transaction price in first tier cities has increased significantly.
Among them, according to the urban energy level, in February 2022, the transaction and construction areas of the first, second and third and fourth lines of land in 100 cities were 1.61 million square meters, 3.68 million square meters and 5.67 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 36.9%, – 75.8% and – 70.9% respectively. The total transaction price was 48 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan and 14.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 22.0%, – 94.5% and – 76.8% respectively. The average transaction price was 29845 yuan / m2, 1355 yuan / m2 and 2490 yuan / m2 respectively, with a single month year-on-year increase of + 23.6%, – 77.1% and – 20.3% respectively. In terms of land transaction premium rate, the first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier (residential) in February were 4.5%, 0.5% and 0.8% respectively (0.0%, 5.7% and 2.7% in January).
Investment suggestions: 1) since the beginning of 2022, many parties have released the capital area pole signal, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 5bp, the affordable housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, the new measures for the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been structurally corrected, and major banks have provided M & A financing support“ α The “risk” restoration has entered the implementation stage, and the liquidity of the real estate industry continues to ease. 2) While the liquidity is easing, China’s prudent management of real estate finance and the trend of “deleveraging” will continue to deepen, and some of the early overly radical real estate enterprises“ α “Risk” may still be exposed, but China’s real estate market“ β The overall trend of “coefficient” health and stability will not change. The high-quality real estate enterprises adhering to the principle of “moderate leverage, steady operation, quality and orderly development” will usher in the development opportunity of “orderly competition”, and gradually lead China’s real estate industry to the iterative upgrading of “rationalization of profits, refinement of management, high-quality products and green construction”. 3) On February 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed to “meet the reasonable demand for improved house purchase”. On March 5, the government work report of the national two sessions made it clear that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing demand of house buyers”. We believe that the follow-up improvement of real estate credit support is expected to be improved, and the issuance of real estate bonds is expected to be large. On March 16, the meeting of the financial stability Committee of the State Council proposed that real estate enterprises should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and put forward supporting measures for transformation to a new development model. We believe that the subsequent public offering of REITs in the real estate industry is expected to break the ice, and the first batch of most likely basic assets include affordable rental housing, commercial real estate, etc. 4) Recently, the market has paid more attention to the real estate sector and is optimistic about the long-term performance of high-quality leading real estate enterprises. It recommends China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, China Overseas Hongyang group, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Yuexiu real estate.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring and other factors may lead to the industry’s development less than expected, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; Recently, real estate enterprises have ushered in a debt repayment peak, and the debt default risk of low credit real estate enterprises has increased.
