Industry Overview: low penetration, high growth and low concentration, waiting for further policy catalysis
Overall situation: the adult incontinence products industry is small but growing fast. The market scale in 2021 is 7.5 billion yuan, and the CAGR in the past decade is 23.2%, which is the fastest growing track in the absorbent products industry; Among the products, the consumption of buckle diapers accounts for the highest proportion, and most users are severe incontinence. Demand side: the growth of consumers comes from the aging of China's population and the increase in the proportion of disabled elderly. The policy side long-term insurance policy is an important catalytic factor for the improvement of penetration. We expect that under the condition of accelerated penetration, the market scale will reach 16.2 billion yuan / 40.8 billion yuan respectively in 2025 / 2030, corresponding to 21.2% / 20.7% CAGR in 4 / 9 years. Supply side: at present, the market pattern is uncertain, and the main players are Chinese brands; The industry Cr5 is only 25%, and regional brands still have room for survival. Development trend: product upgrading and unit price reaching mature market level; The channel share on the channel end line continued to expand.
Japanese adult incontinence products market: industry catalysis depends on policy, and the company relies on products to break through
The main line of industry growth is population aging, and the catalyst is intermediary insurance: Japan entered a slightly aging society in the 1960s and began to formulate policies related to the welfare of the elderly in 1963. During this period, it experienced a series of changes, and finally began to implement the intermediary insurance policy in 2000. Care insurance is the reimbursement of care aids (including adult incontinence products) for disabled people, which has led to the rapid growth of adult incontinence products in Japan; The CAGR of sales volume from 2001 to 2006 was 13.7% (6.0% from 1996 to 2001); With the increase of the aging population, the scale of Japan's adult incontinence products industry has exceeded the sum of baby care and female hygiene products.
The leader is built by exploring emerging markets, reducing costs and increasing efficiency. The highlights of business specialization are the whole product matrix and early consumer education: UNIKA is the first in Japan and the top three absorbent sanitary products supplier in the world. After reviewing its development process, we found that unijia first obtained the first mover advantage in Japan, and then realized cost reduction and efficiency increase by specializing in its main business and continuously entering emerging market countries. Focusing on its adult incontinence business, its full product matrix that can meet the needs of different groups and early consumer education for mild incontinence are the main highlights of its business success.
Chinese players: ODM driven growth, private brand accumulation
Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) is the market leader of adult incontinence products in China, with a revenue of 1.64 billion yuan in 2020 and a CAGR of 34.3% in 20182020, including 430 million yuan of adult incontinence products business, with a market share of 8.3%. Business highlights: 1) perfect brand matrix; 2) On the channel side, pay close attention to online channels and home market.
Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) is a personal care provider dominated by ODM, with a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan in 2020 and 230 million yuan in 2019. Business highlights: 1) research and development of composite core to bring cooperation with well-known brands at home and abroad; 2) ODM business capacity expansion brings more high-quality key customers, so as to reduce costs and increase efficiency of the overall business.
Investment advice
Compared with infant care / female hygiene products, foreign brands in the adult incontinence products industry do not have strong first mover advantages. At present, the market is dominated by Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) , HengAn international and other Chinese companies. We are optimistic about the deep cultivation ability of domestic brands in the local market and the later development ability of medium and high-end brands. It is suggested to pay attention to: Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , HengAn international.
Risk tips
Risk of epidemic prevention and control; Policy risk; Macroeconomic risks; Risk of profit decline due to intensified industry competition; Risk of rising raw material prices.
