Event: the National Energy Administration issued the modern energy system plan for the 14th five year plan.
Reaffirm the target of the proportion of non fossil energy consumption in energy consumption and support the bottom line demand for renewable energy installation. According to the "1.45 billion tons of coal" standard, China's total energy consumption will increase from 1.35 billion tons of coal in 2020 to 4.95 billion tons of GDP in the next five years. In terms of energy consumption structure, the plan requires that by 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20%, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%, and the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will reach about 30%. It is expected that the total consumption of non fossil energy will increase from 792 million tons of standard coal in 2020 to 1.184 billion tons of standard coal, of which the increment will be mainly contributed by wind power and photovoltaic power generation. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the installation of wind and solar energy is expected to accelerate.
Accelerate the development of large base + distributed scenery and promote the transformation of green and low-carbon energy. The document emphasizes that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, on the one hand, we will promote the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, on the other hand, we will accelerate the construction of distributed wind power and distributed photovoltaic in load centers and give priority to local consumption. For decentralized wind power, the planning requires the promotion and application of low wind speed wind power technology. After solving the problems of land and ecology, it is expected to open the demand for decentralized wind power installation in China; For distributed photovoltaic, while continuously promoting the construction of household photovoltaic installation, actively promote the development and utilization of industrial roof photovoltaic, promote the integrated application of photovoltaic power generation and construction, and the demand for industrial and commercial photovoltaic installation may be released rapidly.
Strengthen the construction of power transmission channels to ensure the large-scale consumption of new energy power. Due to the uneven spatial distribution of renewable energy in China, the construction of wind power station + transmission channel has become one of the important ways to solve energy consumption. The plan requires that during the "14th five year plan" period, the transmission capacity of stock channels will be increased by more than 40gw, more than 60GW of inter provincial and inter regional transmission channels will be newly started, and the power of renewable energy transmitted by the new channels will not be less than 50%. Combined with the action plan of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization" proposed by the State Grid, 56gw of new transmission capacity will be added during the "14th five year plan", and UHV and other supporting industrial chains are expected to usher in a high boom.
Accelerate new energy to the sea and build a green silk road. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's clean energy industry is expected to accelerate its going global and deepen cooperation with developing countries in the fields of wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage. At present, the global market participation of China's wind power industry is limited, and the new energy sea going strategy is expected to accelerate the promotion of wind turbines to sea, accelerate overseas penetration and broaden market space.
The attention of hydrogen energy continues to increase, the top-level design is about to be introduced, and the hydrogen energy industry is expected to start a new stage of development. This plan proposes to accelerate the research of key technologies of hydrogen energy, appropriately deploy a number of hydrogen energy projects in advance, and strive to overcome the core technologies such as hydrogen production from renewable energy, hydrogen energy storage and transportation, application and fuel cell. Hydrogen energy, as an important way to achieve decarbonization in industry, transportation and other fields in the process of energy transformation, has received rapid attention. In 2021, China's fuel cell vehicle demonstration was officially launched, and the shortlisted urban agglomerations have launched relevant subsidy / support policies to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry from the application end; In addition, on the supply side, Inner Mongolia and other major new energy installed provinces will focus on promoting the development of green hydrogen during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and some chemical enterprises are also vigorously distributing the production of gray hydrogen / Blue hydrogen such as industrial by-product hydrogen and coal to hydrogen. With the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) to be released on March 23, the top-level plan is officially implemented, and the hydrogen energy industry is expected to open a new stage of commercial development.
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected.
