Event:
On March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”).
Comments:
The plan defines the development goals in the field of China’s energy construction. According to the plan, by 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20%, and the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%; Electric energy accounts for about 30% of terminal energy consumption; The scale of flexible transformation of coal motor units has exceeded 200 million KW; The installed capacity of nuclear power operation reaches about 70 million KW; The installed capacity of conventional hydropower reaches about 380 million kW (the cumulative installed capacity of conventional hydropower in 2021 is 355 million KW); The power demand side response capacity reaches 3% ~ 5% of the maximum load, of which East China, central China and South China reach about 5% of the maximum load. By 2030, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%. On the whole, the overall objectives of the plan are basically consistent with those set in the previous action plan for reaching the peak by 2030 and the 14th five year plan.
China’s energy structure has been continuously optimized and the construction of a new power system has been accelerated. By the end of 2021, China’s installed capacity of renewable energy power generation had exceeded 1 billion kw, reaching 1.063 billion kw, accounting for 44.8% of the total installed capacity of power generation. The installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation had exceeded 300 million KW, and the installed capacity of offshore wind power ranked first in the world. The plan mentions that by 2025, we should actively and orderly promote the construction of coastal nuclear power projects, maintain a stable pace of construction, and reasonably arrange new coastal nuclear power projects; We should actively promote the development of advanced nuclear power technologies such as high temperature gas cooled reactor, fast reactor, modular small reactor and offshore floating reactor. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is expected that 6-8 nuclear power units will be started every year. In terms of pumped storage, by 2025, the installed capacity will increase from 36 million kW in 2021 to more than 62 million KW, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.6%. According to the previous medium and long-term development plan for pumped storage (20212035), the total scale of production will reach about 120 million KW by 2030, and pumped storage is expected to maintain a high prospect in the future. In addition, wind power and photovoltaic are still the core of energy transformation. The plan emphasizes the need to comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and increase power grid investment to build a new power system with new energy as the core. As an important carrier, UHV power transmission and transformation lines will usher in a new round of accelerated construction. The plan also emphasizes the need to appropriately deploy a number of hydrogen energy projects in advance. With the strong promotion of national policies, the whole hydrogen energy industry chain is expected to accelerate its development.
Investment suggestion: according to the national energy administration, among the five power generation types, the growth rate of new installed capacity of photovoltaic / wind power / nuclear power in 2021 is relatively fast, 20.9% / 16.6% / 6.8% respectively. In 2021, China’s wind power and photovoltaic power generation accounted for 7.85% and 3.92% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society respectively. The total proportion exceeded 10% for the first time, increased by 2.09pct to 11.77% year-on-year, and will further increase to about 16.5% by 2025. By 2025, the national installed capacity of nuclear power will increase from 53gw in 2021 to 70gw, and the compound annual growth rate will reach about 7.1%. It is suggested to pay attention to new energy operation leader China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ( China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ), power grid leader Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) ( Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) ), hydrogen energy production, storage, transportation and whole industry chain layout Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ), nuclear power and wind and solar new energy double wheel drive China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ).
Risk tips: the policy promotion is less than expected, the new energy installation is less than expected, and the industrial chain development is less than expected.
