The financial commission will stabilize market expectations, stabilize growth or continue to make efforts. As of March 18, the home appliance index (Shenwan) fell 11.5% this month, underperforming the Wande all a index by 4.7pcts. Last week, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting. The meeting stressed that relevant departments should earnestly assume their responsibilities, actively introduce policies conducive to the market and prudently introduce contractionary policies. Benefiting from the support of relevant policies, the retail of traditional categories of household appliances has picked up. According to the data of ovicloud, the retail of traditional categories picked up significantly in February 2022, and the sales of air conditioners, washing machines and refrigerators were + 25% / + 8% / + 9% respectively compared with the same period in 19 years. Looking forward to the future, the steady growth policy will be further strengthened, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the changes in the future prosperity of the industry.
In terms of home appliance fundamentals, we selected 17 home appliance stocks as the research object. Their overall ROE (TTM) has been in a downward channel since the peak in the mid-18 years. The ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 20 years was the lowest value of 17%, and then rebounded. As of 21, the ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 21 years has rebounded to 21%, still 23% lower than the historical average (2014 first quarterly report – 2021 third quarterly report). Looking forward to 2022q1, the bad situation of the household appliance sector is gradually passivated + the valuation is low, and the time point of better configuration is approaching. (1) Negative passivation: raw material prices open a downward channel, the superposition base increases, and the upstream cost pressure decreases marginally in 2022. (2) Low valuation: the overall PE valuation of core household appliance stocks fell back to near the historical average relative to the market. (3) Rising allocation value: the experience of the past 16 years shows that Q4 to Q1 is a period with high winning rate. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: (1) traditional leaders benefiting from fundamental recovery, focusing on Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ; (2) Pay attention to Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) , equity reform catalysis + laser TV volume + products going abroad; (3) Emerging household appliances with high prosperity include Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) .
Fundamentals: the steady growth policy continues to work, and white electricity retail has warmed up
Real estate data: from January to February, the sales area of new houses was – 9.6% year-on-year, and real estate sales continued to fluctuate at a low level. From January to February 2022, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 9.6% compared with the same period in 2021. Specifically, the first and second tier cities fell significantly year-on-year, while the sales of commercial housing in the third and fourth tier cities are gradually stabilizing. Although the current policy level has made more positive statements, it still takes time for the confidence of the industry to recover. At present, real estate enterprises and home buyers are generally in a wait-and-see state, resulting in the downturn of real estate sales and investment in the second half of 21 years. Looking to the future, we believe that real estate sales and investment may continue to bottom out, and under the main tone of this year’s “steady growth” policy, a wider range of easing policies is expected to come. From January to February 2022, the new construction area of houses decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, and the new construction of houses decreased significantly. From January to February 2022, the construction area of houses increased by + 1.8% year-on-year; The completed area of the house was – 9.8% year-on-year, which turned negative year-on-year.
Production and sales of household appliances: (1) air conditioners: in terms of delivery, 9.69 million household air conditioners (YoY + 10.6%) were shipped in February, including 3.84 million domestic air conditioners (YoY + 4.1%). Due to the disturbance of the Spring Festival holiday and the continuous development of the steady growth policy, the domestic sales of air conditioners became positive year-on-year; In February, 5.85 million air conditioners (YoY + 15.3%) were exported, which increased significantly year-on-year, and the absolute volume remained high. Retail end: the volume / volume of air-conditioning omni-channel retail sales in February was + 78% / + 105% year-on-year, and + 25% / + 21% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. Under the condition of continuous efforts of stable growth policy, air-conditioning retail sales picked up rapidly. In terms of price, the average price of the industry has been positive year-on-year since 20q4, and the online / offline price maintained growth in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 15% / + 12% respectively; (2) Chef electricity: in February, the omni-channel retail volume / volume of range hood was + 17% / + 42% year-on-year, and + 4% / + 20% year-on-year; (3) Refrigerators & washing machines: the volume / volume of refrigerators in February was – 13% / – 17% year-on-year, up + 9% / + 5% year-on-year; the retail volume / volume of washing machines in February was + 4% / + 8% year-on-year, up + 8% / + 13% year-on-year. (4) Cleaning appliances: in February, the sales volume / volume of cleaning appliances in all channels was – 17% / – 7% year-on-year, the online retail volume / volume was – 17% / – 7% year-on-year, and the offline retail volume / volume was – 19% / – 9% year-on-year.
Risk analysis: real estate sales are less than expected; The cost of raw materials has risen sharply; The local currency appreciated sharply.
