Covid-19 vaccination has been normalized, and the run factor has been eliminated. At present, the coverage rate of strengthened needles in China has reached about 40%. Since the beginning of 2022, excluding the Spring Festival, the daily vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has been maintained at about 5 million doses, far below the peak value of 24 million doses, and the factors of covid-19 vaccination run have been eliminated. According to the calculation of 5 million doses / day vaccination, we expect that the booster vaccination will be completed in the first half of 22 years.
The batch issuance of conventional heavy varieties has achieved a high increase, and the terminal vaccination is expected to be improved. (1) HPV vaccine: 250 batches (+ 140%), including 10 batches of gsk2 vaccine (+ 233%), 34 batches of MSD 4 vaccine (+ 10%), 43 batches of MSD 9 vaccine (+ 79%), and 163 batches of Wantai Canghai 2 vaccine (+ 254%). The total amount of the batch issued is about 23.2 billion yuan. (2) 13 valent pneumonia combination: 104 batches (+ 51%) were issued, including 59 batches of Pfizer (+ 119%), 42 batches of Watson (0%) and 3 batches of minhai. The total amount of the batch was about 12.6 billion yuan. (3) Influenza vaccine: 308 batches (+ 55%) were issued in batches, including 100 batches (+ 3%) of Hualan vaccine and Jiangsu Gdk Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688670) 98 batches (+ 92%). The batch issuance of influenza vaccine still maintained a rapid growth in 21 years, but the terminal vaccination volume was limited due to covid-19 vaccination run. (4) Chickenpox vaccine: 472 batches (+ 22%) were issued in batches, including 145 batches of 100 grams (+ 4%, accounting for 31%), 104 batches of Shanghai Institute (8%, accounting for 22%), and 61 batches of Qijian (- 20%, accounting for 13%). The total issued amount is about 5 billion yuan. (5) EV71 vaccine: 150 batches (+ 14%) were issued in batches, including 74 batches (+ 28%, accounting for 49%), 46 batches (- 28%, accounting for 31%) in Wuhan Institute, and 30 batches (+ 200%, accounting for 20%) in Beijing Kexing. The total amount of the batch issued is about 3.2 billion yuan. (6) Rotavirus vaccine: 192 batches (+ 10%) were issued in batches, including 103 batches (- 19%, accounting for 45%) at the unit price of Lanzhou Institute and 87 batches (+ 81%, accounting for 54%) at the five price of MSD. The total amount of the batch issued is about 3.1 billion yuan. (7) Rabies vaccine: 983 batches (+ 12%) were issued in batches, of which 458 batches (+ 10%, accounting for 47%). Kanghua is the only enterprise producing human diploid rabies vaccine. In the next 2-3 years, the production enterprises of human diploid rabies vaccine are expected to gradually increase and the penetration rate will be improved.
A number of newly listed varieties have entered a large-scale period, driving the rapid growth of performance in 22 years. In 2021, Zhifei’s micro card, Kangtai’s pcv13, Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) mcv2 + MCV4 and Olin’s mcv2 will be listed. After the laying of early channels and the bidding work in all provinces, the newly listed varieties are expected to be in large quantities in 2022, driving the rapid growth of the industry. In the next 3-5 years, herpes zoster, pcv15 and HPV4 / hpv9 are expected to be approved for listing. The number of single variety vaccines with sales of more than 3-5 billion yuan in China will continue to increase. Leading enterprises rely on large single products to rapidly increase the market share, and there is a certain room for improvement in the price system.
Investment suggestion: considering the increasingly obvious influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic, it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) -u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , etc; In the long run, each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or will be put on the market. With the increase of vaccination awareness under the covid-19 epidemic, we expect that the vaccination rate of large varieties is expected to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. We recommend Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) .
Risk warning: the risk of stricter regulatory policies, the risk of quality problems in interbank products, the risk of less than expected progress in new product research and development, the risk of less than expected market promotion, and the risk of not updating the information and data used in the research report in time
