Steel:
The comprehensive price index of Pu steel was + 1.35% month on month; Under the development of infrastructure construction, the demand has slightly warmed up, and the average daily trading volume of construction steel is + 27.41% year-on-year; The supply is limited by the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, Paralympic Games and the two sessions. The crude steel output is – 10.00% year-on-year, the inventory is at a low level in recent three years, and the gross profit is down under the rising pressure of raw materials. In the context of stabilizing the economy, the supply side restrictions may be loosened. In terms of demand, we still need to continue to pay attention to the effect of stabilizing the economy. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the field of growing special steel.
Industrial metals:
In terms of aluminum, LME aluminum spot settlement price was + 2.01% month on month; The average spot price of SHFE aluminum was – 0.88% month on month. The overseas supply of Ukraine is disturbed by the situation of China; The inventory end is low; On the price of raw material side, the alumina production capacity is expected to increase / recover, but the prebaked anode has increased; The demand side is guaranteed under the stable economy, photovoltaic and automobile lightweight, and the short-term aluminum price is expected to run at a high level.
New energy metals:
The output of lithium carbonate increased by 46.15% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by 115.92% year-on-year. The supply and demand continued to be tight, and the price of electric carbon / lithium hydroxide / industrial carbon increased by 12.00% / 24.59% / 12.79% month on month. In the short term, talison began to release in March and sqm in June. It is expected that the lithium shortage will ease after March, but it is still tight. It is expected that the lithium price will remain high.
Rare earth:
At the oxide end, the valence ratio of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide is – 7.31%; The valence ring ratio of dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide is – 7.17% / – 6.95% respectively. At the ore end, the price of medium yttrium rich europium ore was – 4.99% month on month; Shanghai Nonferrous rare earth carbonate ore price was – 7.30% month on month. The price of ring iron is – 50h, and the ratio of neodymium to boron is – 35.4%. Rare earth prices showed a downward trend, mainly due to: 1 Low market turnover at high prices; 2. The situation in Russia and Ukraine or expectations affecting demand. The transaction at a high price is less than expected, and the supplier rationally reduces the price. In the short term, the price or shock is weak under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ( Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ).
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
