Event: according to the official website of the national development and Reform Commission, a press conference will be held on March 23, 2022 to introduce the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035).
Hydrogen energy has a broad market space, and industrial policies continue to be implemented. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, China's hydrogen demand will reach 35 million tons by 2030, accounting for 5% of the terminal energy system; By 2050, the demand will reach 60 million tons (equivalent to 292.68% in 2020), accounting for 10% of the terminal energy system, which can reduce about 700 million tons of carbon dioxide, and the output value of the industrial chain will reach 12 trillion yuan / year. Among them, 24.58 million tons of hydrogen will be used in transportation, accounting for about 19% of the energy used in this field, which is equivalent to reducing 83.57 million tons of crude oil or 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas; 33.7 million tons of hydrogen are used in industrial fields and 1.1 million tons in construction and other fields, which is equivalent to a reduction of 170 million tons of standard coal. There are more than 10000 hydrogen refueling stations in China, the output of fuel cell vehicles reaches 5 million units / year, the fixed power generation unit is 20000 units / year, and the production capacity of fuel cell system is 5.5 million units / year. Favorable policies continue to be implemented (see the text for details).
The faucet of compression equipment Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) is arranged in advance, and the fuel cell air compressor and hydrogen circulation pump have been certified. In June 2019, Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) announced the wholly-owned establishment of Shandong Binglun Haizhuo Hydrogen Energy Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd. to carry out research on major equipment and common key technologies of hydrogen energy industry; In June 2021, the company announced that the products of fuel injection screw hydrogen delivery compressor, fuel cell air compressor, fuel cell hydrogen circulating pump and high-pressure hydrogenation compressor have passed the scientific and technological achievement appraisal of China General Machinery Industry Association. Previously, the new high-efficiency helium screw compressor developed by the company in the field of hydrogen liquefaction was selected as the first batch of major technical equipment projects in the field of energy by the national energy administration. According to the calculation of the overall goal of the fuel cell industry by China hydrogen energy alliance, the output of fuel cell vehicles in 2025 and 2035 will be 5 and 1.3 million respectively. Assuming that the average power of each vehicle is 80 and 100 kW respectively, and the unit power cost is 3000 and 2000 yuan / kw respectively, according to the data of Polaris hydrogen energy network, the oxidant supply subsystem accounts for 20% of the cost of the fuel cell system, in which the air compressor is the main part, Assuming that the total cost of hydrogen circulation system is 20%, the corresponding market space in 2025 and 2035 will be 2.4 billion yuan and 52 billion yuan respectively.
The government and enterprises have made clear plans to accelerate the development of hydrogenation stations, and the company's orders for hydrogenation compressors can be put into effect. On the government side, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Guangdong and other provinces and cities have issued policies to clearly plan to accelerate the development of hydrogen refueling stations. On the enterprise side, large energy leaders such as Sinopec, PetroChina and national energy group have arranged and promoted the construction of hydrogenation stations. According to the white paper on China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, China needs to invest 15 million yuan to build a hydrogenation station with a daily hydrogenation capacity of 500kg and a filling pressure of 35MPa, of which the compressor accounts for 30%, corresponding to 4.5 million yuan. According to our calculation, 200 and 1500 hydrogenation stations will be built by 2025 and 2035 respectively, and the corresponding compressor market space will be 900 million yuan and 6.75 billion yuan respectively. At present, Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) the products of fuel injection screw hydrogen delivery compressor and high-pressure hydrogenation compressor have passed the appraisal of scientific and technological achievements of China General Machinery Industry Association, and the overall performance of the products has reached the international advanced level. Therefore, under the trend of rapid development of hydrogenation station, the company's hydrogenation compressor business order can be placed on schedule.
Target level: leading enterprises [ Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) ] are expected to benefit fully. It is suggested to pay attention to the targets of the industrial chain [ Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) ], [ Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) ]. Recommended equipment leader [ Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) ], we expect the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 to be 0.46, 0.59 and 0.73 yuan respectively, corresponding to 28, 21 and 17 times of PE respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating. It is suggested to pay attention to Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , etc.
Risk tips: raw material prices, intensified industry competition, and the development of cold chain logistics industry does not meet expectations.
