Event description:
On March 22, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration officially released the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”).
Event comments:
Promote the low-carbon transformation of energy structure and greatly improve the efficiency of energy system. The plan proposes that during the “14th five year plan” period, the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP will decrease by 18% in five years, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP will decrease by 13.5% in five years. By 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20%, which is consistent with the formulation in the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 issued by the State Council. It is proposed that by 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%, and the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will reach about 30%. Based on this calculation, the national wind power generation in 2025 will need to increase by 0.8 trillion kwh compared with that in 2021. According to the proportion of new contribution of wind power photovoltaic is 5:5, it is estimated that the annual installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic will still need to be increased by 130gw + from 2022 to 2025.
Vigorously develop non fossil energy and promote the continuous increase of the proportion of new energy. We will promote large-scale development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, give priority to nearby development, and speed up distributed construction. Promote the centralized development of scenery in areas with good resource endowment and conditions, and speed up the construction of large base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas. Actively promote the application modes of roof photovoltaic, BIPV, solar hydrogen production, offshore wind power and solar thermal power generation. In addition, the plan proposes that by 2025, the installed capacity of conventional hydropower should reach about 380gw and that of nuclear power should reach about 70gw.
Promote the construction of new power system and strengthen the load elasticity of power grid. The increase in the proportion of new energy poses a challenge to the safe and stable operation of the power grid. The plan requires accelerating the upgrading of the distribution network, accelerating the digital upgrading of the power system, and improving the intelligent level of the power grid, so as to improve the adaptability of the power grid to large-scale new energy access. The plan also requires that by 2025, the scale of flexible transformation of coal-fired power units will exceed 200GW, the installed capacity of pumped storage will reach more than 62gw, and the capacity under construction will reach about 60GW. Speed up the scale application of new energy storage technologies such as electrochemical energy storage, compressed air energy storage and flywheel energy storage, strengthen the corresponding capacity construction on the power demand side, and enhance the ability of optimal allocation of power system resources in multiple directions.
We will deepen the reform of electricity marketization and promote market-oriented trading of distributed generation. The plan calls for speeding up the construction of a power market system composed of medium and long-term market, spot market and auxiliary service market, pilot green power trading, improve the price formation mechanism of wind power generation and energy storage, promote industrial and commercial users to directly participate in the power market, support distributed generation to trade nearby with power users in the same distribution grid area, and improve the price policy and market rules supporting market-oriented trading of distributed generation.
Investment suggestion: the plan puts forward clear requirements for the path of low-carbon transformation of China’s energy structure and the proportion target of non fossil energy during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which is conducive to the construction of China’s new power system and the continuous and steady progress of power marketization reform. The following suggestions and concerns include the following: followingthe following of the following following: followingthe following following following the following: followingthe following of the following: Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) .
Risk tips: new energy can absorb risks; Risk of policy changes at home and abroad; Industrial chain price fluctuation risk.
