Index
On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, as of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.19% to 325986 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.49%, the gem index fell 1.39%, and the turnover between the two markets reached 962.8 billion. Northbound funds sold a net 922 million yuan today. In terms of sectors, real estate (Shenwan class) led the rise, up 3.5%.
Comments
In the core data tracking 20220316 of infrastructure industry chain, we recommend that real estate can be used as a main logic of short-term configuration. In the past five trading days, real estate has increased significantly in four days. The logic we recommend is: 1. Expectations of subsequent policy easing in the real estate industry. At the two sessions in 2022, the government work report mentioned for the first time that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers” and reiterated that all localities should actively implement policies based on the city. On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting on the need for real estate enterprises to timely study and put forward strong and effective countermeasures to prevent and resolve risks. The government should do a good job in the soft landing of real estate this year, This is the policy bottom of the real estate industry. Moreover, there is great macroeconomic pressure this year, and it is difficult to have bright spots. In addition to infrastructure, high-end manufacturing and digital economy, other paths to help stabilize growth are not clear. Some local governments may rely on real estate to drive the local economy. 2. Reverse logic of real estate fundamentals and prosperity. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from the area of real estate development, sales and for sale, as well as the availability of funds of real estate enterprises, the fundamentals of the real estate industry have reached a relatively bottom stage. Recently, many cities have reduced the proportion of down payment and mortgage interest rate, focused on the policy regulation on the demand side, and the home buyers’ sentiment is expected to improve slightly. From the real estate related indicators, the industry has shown signs of recovery. Specifically, the business activity index of the construction industry was 57.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month; The new order index of the construction industry was 55.1%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month; The price index of construction inputs was 58.4%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points over the previous month; The employment index of the construction industry was 55.8%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points over the previous month; The expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 66.0%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Real estate development depends on financial policy in the short term, land in the medium term and population in the long term. In terms of investment suggestions, real estate may go out of the policy and continue to be good – the logic of industry fundamentals bottoming and subsequent recovery is expected. We can pay attention to real estate enterprises with high market share, good credit qualification, abundant liquidity and sufficient and high-quality land reserves in economically developed areas.
Industry dynamics
On March 21, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) issued the prospectus for the first issue of medium-term notes in 2022, with an amount of 2 billion yuan and an issuance period of 5 years; China Resources Land Holdings Co., Ltd. disclosed the issuance documents of the first phase of medium-term notes in 2022. The registered amount of the bonds of China Resources Land is 5.2 billion yuan and the issuance amount of this phase is 3 billion yuan Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) announced that it plans to issue no more than 1.1 billion yuan of corporate bonds. (Beijing News)
Risk warning: real estate sales are not as expected; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations.
