\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 009 Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) )
Key investment points
Event: the company announced the performance express of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022.
The lithium battery cycle sector increased significantly, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 154% in 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 3.918 billion yuan, an increase of 9.06% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 155 million yuan, an increase of 154.31%, the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, an increase of 192450%, and the basic earnings per share was 0.42 yuan / share, an increase of 162.50%. The main factors affecting business performance include: 1) the overall recovery and capacity scale of lithium battery recycling sector have increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, the product structure has been continuously optimized, the overall prosperity of lithium battery industry chain has been continuously improved, and the demand of downstream customers for cobalt, lithium and nickel products has increased strongly; 2) Affected by the sharp rise of raw materials such as steel and resin, the gross profit space of intelligent equipment sector and heavy industrial machinery sector narrowed; 3) In 2021, the amortization expense recognized in the restricted stock incentive plan was 14.56 million yuan.
The output of lithium battery cycle sector increased & profitability improved, and the performance of the first quarter report in 2022 increased significantly. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 85 million yuan to 95 million yuan, an increase of 110.98% to 135.81%, a deduction of non attributable net profit of 70 million yuan to 80 million yuan, an increase of 90.97% to 118.25%, and a basic earnings per share of 0.23 yuan / share to 0.26 yuan / share, compared with 0.11 yuan / share in the same period. The main factors of performance changes are as follows: 1) the demand of downstream customers for lithium battery materials products is growing strongly, and the market demand of lithium battery cycle products is strong; 2) In the lithium battery recycling sector, the recovery rate of main metals was increased, the expanded production capacity was gradually released, the actual effective production capacity was further broken through, and the output of various products increased significantly; The continuous optimization of product structure and the effect of flexible production continue to appear, the competitiveness of the company’s products is enhanced, and the overall profitability is significantly enhanced; 3) The implementation of the restricted stock incentive plan in 2021 confirmed the amortization expense of 9.17 million yuan.
Capacity expansion of lithium battery cycle sector accelerated & industrial chain extension. The company announced the investment plan for 20212024, which is used for battery recovery and regeneration, expansion of production, technological transformation and deepening of industrial chain. Among them, 1) the production expansion and technical transformation project of jintaige has increased the treatment capacity of waste batteries from 20000 tons / year to 50000 tons / year, with a capacity elasticity of 150%, which is expected to be put into operation in April 2022; 2) Ternary precursor project: build 30000 T / a ternary precursor capacity and 12000 T / a lithium carbonate capacity, including 50000 t waste lithium iron phosphate disassembly and recycling production line. It is expected that phase I 2023q4 and phase II 2024q4 will be put into operation, and the business will be expanded to “battery recovery – element extraction – material manufacturing”. The lithium battery cycle capacity expanded rapidly, the lithium iron phosphate recovery capacity was expanded, and the industrial chain was extended to the precursor.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the high prospect of the battery recycling industry is coming. The company actively plans to expand production capacity, expand production and technological transformation of jintaige, increase the treatment capacity of waste batteries from 20000 tons / year to 50000 tons / year in 2021, increase the capacity of lithium carbonate from 2000 tons to 5000 tons in 2021, and the capacity elasticity is 150%. The company expects that the expansion project will be put into operation in April 2022, contributing to growth, Expand and lay out waste battery recycling channels at the same time. We raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 156 / 236 / 350 million in 20212023 to RMB 155 / 349 / 558 million. The EPS in 20212023 was RMB 0.41/0.92/1.47/share, and the current corresponding PE was 47x / 21x / 13X, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the project progress is less than expected, and the competition is intensified
