\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 709 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) )
Key investment points
The year-on-year growth rate of the parent company is RMB 314.91 billion, which is in line with the expected year-on-year growth of the parent company’s net profit of RMB 11.91 billion in 20208, with a year-on-year growth of 2.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 314.42%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.169 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 310.55%; The gross profit margin in 2021 was 34.98%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.01pct; The net profit margin of sales was 20.80%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.65pct. Previously, the company predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was RMB 2.059-2.259 billion, and the company’s annual report was in the median of performance forecast, which was in line with market expectations.
The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 655 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 15.09%. The increase in the proportion of purchased hexafluoride and the provision for impairment affected the profitability. The gross profit margin of Q4 was 29.08%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.04 PCT and a month on month decrease of 14.39 PCT, which was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of hexafluoride bulk orders purchased by the company, resulting in the increase of costs; After deducting 14.74% of non net interest rate, it increased by 5.93 PCT year-on-year and decreased by 10.72 PCT month on month. The company’s Q4 accrued asset impairment loss of 142 million yuan and credit impairment loss of 22 million yuan, which affected the company’s profitability. If added back, it would be flat and slightly increased month on month.
The business of lithium-ion battery materials increased significantly, and the business of iron phosphate began to increase. The revenue of lithium-ion battery materials business in 2021 was 9.733 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 265.92%. The main revenue contribution came from electrolyte, and the iron phosphate business began to increase gradually. The revenue of daily chemical materials business in 2021 was 1.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.19%, which was mainly affected by the decline of kapom price and overseas epidemic. In terms of subsidiary companies, Jiujiang Tianci (electrolyte, daily chemical, etc.) had an operating revenue of 7.365 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, and a net profit of 1.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 193.88%. Ningde Kaixin (electrolyte) had an operating revenue of 6.455 billion yuan and a net profit of 305 million yuan in 2021. Among other businesses, the operating revenue of Jiujiang mining (beneficiation) in 2021 was 629 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 915.05%, and the net profit was 241 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 390.33%, mainly due to the rapid rise in the price of lithium carbonate.
Deeply bind the leaders outside China, further increase the share in 2021, and we expect the shipment to double year-on-year in 2022. In terms of shipment, the company shipped more than 144000 tons of electrolyte in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 97.3%, of which we expect to ship nearly 50000 tons in 2021q4, a month on month increase of 32%. The company is deeply bound to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . In 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) contributed revenue of 5.6 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of the total revenue of Tianci (accounting for 57.5% of the revenue of lithium battery materials). We expect the company to ship about 90000 tons to Ningde, accounting for more than 50% of the demand of Ningde. At the same time, overseas customers made further breakthroughs. The company provided the main supply for LG Nanjing Tesla project and entered Tesla‘s own battery supply chain, contributing part of the increment in 2021. In 2022, the downstream demand is strong. We expect the company to ship 30 China Tianying Inc(000035) 0000 tons, more than doubling year-on-year.
The price of hexafluoride has great elasticity, and the amount of electrolyte rises at the same time. The profitability is expected to be further improved in 2022. We expect that the average price of electrolyte in 2021 will be 6 Shenzhen Sdg Information Co.Ltd(000070) 000 yuan / ton (including tax), and the annual net profit per ton will be nearly 14000 yuan / ton In 2022q1, the company’s hexafluoride production capacity is released, and the self supply proportion is increased to nearly 100%. At the same time, we expect to start the production of new lithium salts, and the company’s low-cost lithium carbonate inventory is sufficient. We expect that the net profit per ton in 2022q1 will be increased to 20000 / ton +, and the hexafluoride price in 2022q1 will begin to loosen, but the electrolyte is long and smooth, and the hexafluoride cycle is long, and the new production capacity such as lifsi and additives will be gradually released, thickening the company’s profit, Throughout the year, the profitability is expected to be further improved than that in 2021.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company’s profitability exceeded expectations. We raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 5.557/73.1/9.684 billion yuan (the original expected net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 was 5.544/7.208 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 152% / 32% / 32%, the corresponding PE was 18 / 14 / 10 times, 26 times PE in 2022, the corresponding target price was 150.5 yuan, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the policy is less than the market expectation, and the competition intensifies.
