\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 245 Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) )
2021 performance maintained high growth and maintained the "buy" rating
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.1%, and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 583 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 215.1%. Considering the price change of raw materials and the climbing capacity of Zhangjiagang phase II, we adjusted 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.062/16.102264 billion (the former value is RMB 1.156/1.829 billion and the new one in 2024), and the EPS will be RMB 1.03/1.55/2.19 (the former value is RMB 1.12/1.77 and the new one in 2024). The current stock price corresponds to 23.7/15.7/11.1 times of PE from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The profit contribution of lithium battery ranks first, and the rise of raw material prices affects the performance in the fourth quarter
In 2021, the company sold 390 million lithium batteries, a year-on-year increase of + 65.5%, and realized a revenue of about 2.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 84.80%. Jiangsu Tianpeng realized a net profit of about 537 million yuan, accounting for 80.1% of the net profit attributable to the parent company. 2021q4 company deducted 126 million yuan of non net profit, which decreased compared with the third quarter, mainly due to the rise in the price of lithium battery raw materials. The overall gross profit margin of 2021q4 company was 18.0%, down 3.7 percentage points from the third quarter. The company conducted cost transmission by raising the sales price. The average price in 2021 was 6.85 yuan / piece, an increase of 0.72 yuan compared with 6.13 in 2020.
Large orders lock in demand, and Zhangjiagang phase II is put into operation to alleviate the bottleneck of production capacity
On August 16, 2021 and March 7, 2022, the company announced that it had obtained major orders. According to the signed order, the company and Bosch confirmed the supply of 87 million RMB 18650 cylinders in 2022; From 2022 to 2024, 120, 240 and 280 million pieces will be supplied to Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) Baide. With the consent of both parties, it can be increased to no more than 200 million pieces in 2022. The company has actively expanded production and alleviated the bottleneck of production capacity. Zhangjiagang phase II has been put into operation in 2021q4. The phase I project of Huai'an plant has now achieved plant capping and is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the output of the company will reach 700 million in 2022, and the production capacity of the company will reach 1.25 billion after Huai'an phase I is completed.
Initial results of LED transformation
In 2021, the sales volume of the company's LED backlight products increased by about 400% compared with that in 2020, accounting for about 20% of the overall revenue, and led turned losses into profits throughout the year. The company's miniled products have gradually entered many well-known terminal manufacturers and began to ship stably.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price rise; Risk of delaying the progress of capacity climbing.
