\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 557 Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) )
Main points:
The policy of traditional Chinese medicine industry has been favorable, and the sales revenue has increased year by year
In recent years, the state has vigorously supported and promoted the development of traditional Chinese medicine. From the 13th five year plan for the development of traditional Chinese medicine, the guiding opinions on promoting the integrated development of traditional Chinese medicine health services and the Internet, and the traditional Chinese medicine law guiding the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry, to the measures for the administration of drug registration and the requirements for registration, classification and application materials of traditional Chinese medicine in 2020, the state has put forward new requirements for the research and development of new traditional Chinese medicine, All of them pointed out the direction for the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, and promoted “the revitalization and development of traditional Chinese medicine ushered in a great opportunity of timing, geography and harmony of people”. In 2020, the net profit of traditional Chinese medicine industry reached 12407996700 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%. From the perspective of trend, the number of approved traditional Chinese medicine has increased year by year, and the time of approval has been shortened year by year. A total of 12 were approved in 2021, exceeding the sum of previous years. The approval time for the listing of traditional Chinese medicine generally shows a decreasing trend year by year, which is 92% shorter in 2022 than in 2017.
Adhere to building strategic varieties and continuously release the development potential of basic drug varieties
The company has formed a development system with “traditional Chinese medicine, chemical medicine and biopharmaceutical” cluster innovation and development as the main line and traditional Chinese medicine cultural health industry and health products as the two wings. The company’s strategic varieties are Reduning injection and Jinzhen oral liquid of anti-virus infection series and ginkgolide glucosamine injection in the field of cardio cerebrovascular. Reduning injection has simplified prescription, relatively clear material basis, clear antiviral and anti-inflammatory mechanism. It has won a number of honors and selected into a number of guidelines with outstanding drug evidence-based evidence, clinical value and brand influence. As one of the core oral preparations, Jinzhen oral liquid has continued to sell well. It has successively won the bid in centralized mining in many provinces. The market has further sunk and has a good development prospect in the future. After the second negotiation in 2019, ginkgo diterpene lactone glucosamine injection was incorporated into the national medical insurance catalogue again, and the effect of volume for price is obvious. The sales volume in 2020 was 8.2114 million, with a year-on-year increase of 130.40%. The sales volume in 2021 was 102863 million, with a year-on-year increase of 25.27%. It has basically offset the impact of medical insurance price reduction, and the future development can be expected. In addition to the above three strategic varieties, the company also selects six exclusive basic drug varieties and Yixinshu tablets to form “seven basic drug varieties” for comprehensive development. Under the environment of the full implementation of the national basic drug policy, the company’s resource advantage of many exclusive basic drug varieties is gradually transforming into market advantage. In 2021, the overall operating revenue of the seven basic drugs increased by 31.06% over the same period of the previous year.
While developing innovative drugs, actively carry out post market drug research
The company adheres to innovation driven development, takes the development of traditional Chinese medicine as the main body, and comprehensively promotes the coordinated development of chemical drugs and biological drugs. In November 2021, Yinqiao Qingre tablet, a new class 1.1 traditional Chinese medicine developed by the company, was approved for listing. This product is the first class 1.1 innovative traditional Chinese medicine approved for listing since the implementation of the requirements for registration classification and application materials of traditional Chinese medicine on July 1, 2020. The clinical trial notice of phlebitis granule and Jiuwei Shufeng Pingchuan Granule was also successfully approved. In 2021, the company obtained 65 newly authorized invention patents, applied for 2 production approvals and 2 clinical licenses, promoted a batch of innovative drugs to enter phase I, II and III clinical stages, and effectively promoted the preclinical research of a batch of class 1.1 innovative drugs. The company also continued to promote in-depth research on key varieties of medical insurance or basic drugs after listing, and orderly carried out evidence-based medical clinical research on major varieties such as Jinzhen oral liquid, Xingbei Zhike granule, Compound Nanxing Zhitong ointment, Longxue Tongluo capsule and Reduning injection. At the same time, the company also conducted in-depth basic Research on the functional components and action mechanism of Ginkgo diterpene lactone glucosamine injection, Guizhi Fuling Capsule, Tianshu capsule and Tongsaimai Tablet, Continue to accumulate clinical re evaluation and basic research evidence to provide strong support for the academic promotion of listed varieties and clinical rational drug use.
Investment suggestion: for the first time, give a “buy” rating.
We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.453 billion yuan, 5.398 billion yuan and 6.482 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, 21.2% and 20.09% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company will be 412 million yuan, 515 million yuan and 606 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, 24.9% and 17.8%, and the corresponding PE will be 18.41x/14.75x/12.52x. We are optimistic about the development of the company’s “traditional Chinese medicine, chemical medicine and biopharmaceutical” cluster, At the same time, we are also optimistic about the scientific research barriers at the academician level of the company. The gradual realization of the company’s follow-up innovative traditional Chinese medicine and chemical and biological drugs will further improve the valuation. We covered for the first time and gave the company a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Industry policy risk; R & D risk; Uncertainty of drug sales, etc
