\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the revenue of 21 years was + 53% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent was + 59% year-on-year. In 2021, the company realized: revenue / net profit attributable to the parent / deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent was 4.02/8.6/810 billion yuan, an increase of 53% / 59% / 59% at the same time. The non recurring profit and loss is 50 million yuan, mainly due to the investment income of idle funds and government subsidies. 21q4: the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 1.91/5.1/480 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 58% / 55% / 51%.
Split by products: 1) skin care products: revenue of RMB 3.63 billion, year-on-year + 54%, accounting for 91%; 2) Medical devices: the revenue was 330 million, up + 67% year-on-year, accounting for 8%; 3) Makeup: the income was 50 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 19%, accounting for 1%.
Split by channel: 1) online / offline: online revenue of RMB 3.3 billion, year-on-year + 52%, accounting for 82%; The offline revenue was 700 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 58%, accounting for 18%; 2) Self operation / distribution and sales on a commission basis: self operation income was 2.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 53%, accounting for 63%; The income from distribution and sales on a commission basis was 1.5 billion, 54% year-on-year, accounting for 37%.
Profit analysis: the expense side is well controlled and the net interest rate continues to rise
21 years: gross profit margin / net profit margin 76% / 21%, year-on-year – 0.3 / + 0.8pp; The rates of sales / management / R & D expenses were 41.8% / 6.1% / 2.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.2pp / – 0.3pp / + 0.4pp, showing a scale effect. 21q4: gross profit margin of 75% (- 0.6pp), net profit margin of 27% (- 0.4pp), sales / management / R & D expense ratio of 36.8% / 5.3% / 2.3% respectively, year-on-year -0.6pp / + 1.0pp / + 1.0pp.
Continue to be optimistic: product expansion + diversified channels + enhanced brand strength
Products: core products stabilize the foundation, and new products create increment.
Core products: solid “cream cream + sunscreen” two major explosive products and category status. Special care cream (more than 4 million bottles sold on double 11) and sunscreen continued to grow at a high rate. Continue to launch the “high moisturizing” product line to consolidate the status of the emulsion / cream. According to Euromonitor, the company ranked 4th in the toner market in 21 years (year-on-year + 3rd). New products: double penetration of efficacy expansion and category innovation. On the one hand, try to introduce “whitening + anti aging” new products. On the other hand, advantageous categories continue to be enriched. 21 years “freeze dried mask” series of products out of the loop. According to Ou Rui, the company’s mask market ranking rose to seventh. The “double repair live essence” series of products is honored as Tmall’s small black box sensitive muscle anti aging essence NO.1.
Brand: the market share of main brands continues to increase, and actively develop new brands around “sensitive +”.
Winona: focus on sensitive muscle repair, with significant head effect. According to Euromonitor, Winona ranked first in the Chinese market of Dermatology grade skin care products in 21 years, with a year-on-year share of + 2PP, nearly the sum of the second and third places in the market. Other brands: the company actively launched new brands such as Winona baby for infant skin care and beautyanswers for skin repair after medical and art, covering many fields such as Shumin, whitening, freckle removal, anti-aging, sunscreen and so on. Among them, Winona baby has emerged in the double 11 and has been listed as the top of tmall baby skin care category. It is expected to continue to increase in 2002; Beautyanswers and new anti-aging brands are expected to be incubated in 2022.
Channels: new channels such as online shaking and voice raising, and the OTC and private domain operation under the offline tiktok are differentiated. Tiktok: the company adheres to the strategy of multi platform layout and actively develops new platforms represented by jitter. 1) Ali lineages such as tmall accounted for 45%, with an increase of 46%; Tiktok tiktok: 2) tremble: Double eleven Winona is tiktok TOP1, and expects to raise the proportion of trembling sound in the future. 3) JD: the revenue of Winona brand increased by more than 30% in 21 years.
Offline: 1) chain drugstore expansion: Great laying potential (go out of Yunnan, start cooperation with regional chain leaders such as Shandong and Shaanxi + embrace the opportunity of digital transformation of OTC channels). If the integration of offline and online can be realized, it is expected to form a differentiated layout with other beauty brand channels. 2) Start private domain operation: in 21 years, the company started private domain operation in nearly 500 offline outlets across the country, with a total of 100000 + members joining 1000 + member communities.
Profit forecast and valuation
Efficacy skin care products have a high prosperity and are expected to maintain rapid growth. Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) products, channels and brands work together, and there is a large room for profitability growth in the future. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 22-24 years will be 5.49 billion yuan, 7.29 billion yuan and 9.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, 32.8% and 28.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.17 billion yuan, 1.57 billion yuan and 2.04 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, 34.4% and 29.4%; The current market value corresponds to pe57, 42 and 33 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The risk of intensified market competition, repeated epidemic, the risk that the marketing model cannot adapt to market changes, the risk of relatively concentrated sales platforms, etc.
