\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 32 Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) )
Investment logic
Lithium iron cathode: 1 Product power: iron lithium gradually moves from homogenization to product and cost difference. We believe that the company can rely on the oxalic acid method to prepare (high-voltage solid) lithium iron cathode to stabilize the high-end power market of lithium iron. 2. Upstream: the company cooperates with Sichuan sitrui lithium industry and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) etc. through joint investment and strategic cooperation to complete the layout of upstream raw materials such as lithium source and phosphorus source, so as to realize the upstream and downstream integration strategy. 3. Downstream: the company is deeply bound with the downstream high-quality battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and has no worry about the ability to cross the cycle. 4. Clear cost reduction path: there are various cost reduction routes in the iron lithium industry. Among them, the company is expected to open the cost reduction channel of oxalic acid method in the future through the diversity of raw material use, supply chain integration and selection of origin. 5. Production capacity: it is estimated that the nominal production capacity of iron lithium of the company may reach 122000 tons or 222000 tons by the end of the year. 6. Price: the price is affected by the price of lithium carbonate, the upstream raw material of iron lithium, which has risen to 500000 yuan / ton. At present, the tight supply of lithium source will continue. We expect the price of iron lithium cathode of the company to remain at a high level of more than 130000 yuan / ton in 22 and 23 years.
Intelligent electronic control: cut into Huawei's industrial chain, create an intelligent electronic control product matrix and form an integration advantage. Relying on United Electronics and Huawei, the company continues to build an intelligent electronic control product matrix on the basis of continuous climbing increment of on-board electric drive reducers, forming system integration advantages. Among them, 150000 sets / year of on-board electric drive reducers in phase I have been mass produced, and 180000 sets / year capacity in phase II is expected to be officially mass produced in the first half of 22 years. We expect the revenue growth of this sector to be 220% and 31% in 22 and 23 years.
Raised investment projects: the total amount of fixed and raised investment that the company has completed the issuance in March 2022 is no more than 1.5 billion yuan, of which 860 million yuan is used for the intelligent electronic control business of new energy vehicles, 272 million yuan is used for the construction of 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, and 368 million yuan is used to supplement working capital, which is expected to help the development of the company.
Investment advice and valuation
The company is deeply bound to the battery leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and is not afraid of the disturbance of iron lithium cycle. In the future, with the continuous production of new iron lithium capacity and intelligent electronic control capacity in 22 years, the company's net profit is expected to be 408, 719 and 1097 million yuan from 2021 to 2023. Referring to comparable companies, the company is given 30 times PE in 2022, the target market value is 21.6 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price is 29.02 yuan / share. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk
New energy battery technology risks; The risk of cyclical fluctuations in the automotive industry; Risk of overcapacity of new energy lithium battery cathode; The subsidiary sublimation technology performance is less than the expected risk.
