\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 77 Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) )
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 12.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.53%
The company released its annual report for 21 years. The annual revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was 169.98/12.53 billion yuan, with an adjusted year-on-year increase of + 4.83% / – 3.53% respectively. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 51.52 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 4.10%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.645 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.13%. After 21 years of integration, the scale of the company doubled, the operating revenue increased slightly, and the profit decline was mainly affected by the rise of coal cost. The sales / management expense ratio decreased, and the follow-up operation is expected to continue to improve.
The cement production capacity ranks first in China, and the aggregate business is expected to continue in large quantities
The company sold 317.4 million tons of cement and clinker in 21 years, a slight decrease of 3.4% year-on-year. The average price per ton increased by 34.6 yuan year-on-year to 359 yuan / ton, the cost per ton increased by 36.3 yuan year-on-year to 257 yuan / ton, and finally realized a gross profit per ton of 102 yuan, a slight decrease of 1.7 yuan / ton year-on-year. After the reorganization and integration of the company in 21 years, the clinker production capacity reached 330 million tons, ranking first in China. The cement sales market covers 25 provinces, with the East / Central South / North / West accounting for 41.7% / 19.8% / 18.9% / 19.5% respectively. We judge that the steady economic growth in 22 years is expected to boost the demand for cement, and the demand side of the whole year is still resilient. As the industry leader of national layout, the company’s sales volume is expected to be high and stable. The supply side is expected to benefit from the supply contraction caused by the tightening of peak shifting production, and the supply and demand may maintain a dynamic balance. The rising cost may drive the central improvement of cement price. At the same time, the scale effect of the company after restructuring is expected to be further brought into play. We expect the company’s gross profit per ton to increase slightly in 22 years. At present, the proportion of inefficient production capacity of 2500 tons and below is still high. In the medium and long term, the cost side of the company still has great room for improvement. In 21 years, the company sold 85.7 million tons of aggregate and achieved a revenue of 4.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.41%. At present, the company has an aggregate production capacity of 190 million tons and a production capacity under construction of 50 million tons. In 22 years, the sales volume of aggregate business may maintain a significant increase to provide profit increment for the company.
After the reorganization, the ability of cost control has been strengthened, and there is much room for improvement in the capital structure
In the 21st year, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 24.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.4pct, of which the gross profit margin of cement clinker / aggregate / concrete was 28.4% / 46.3% / 14.7% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of – 3.6 / – 5.5 / – 4.2pct; During the 21-year period, the expense rate was 10.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.02pct, of which the sales / Finance / R & D expense rate was – 0.2 / – 0.4 / + 0.6pct respectively year-on-year. The decrease in the sales and management expense rate reflected the enhancement of the company’s expense control ability after restructuring. The increase in R & D expenses was mainly caused by new R & D projects, and finally realized the parent net interest rate of 7.4%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.6pct. At the end of the period, the asset liability ratio was 68%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.1pct, and there was much room for improvement in the capital structure.
Internal synergy is expected to continue to strengthen and maintain the “buy” rating
After the reorganization, the company has a clinker production capacity of 330 million tons, a commercial mixing production capacity of 420 million m3 and an aggregate production capacity of 190 million tons, and the hierarchical structure is reduced from four levels to three levels. In the future, the internal synergy is expected to be further developed and the leading position will continue to be strengthened. The company announced that the proportion of cash dividends in 20212023 will be increased to more than 50%, and the return on investment will be improved. Considering that the company’s “profit target of RMB 17.2 billion / year” will be raised from RMB 17.2 billion to RMB 2.3 billion, and the company’s net profit of 2.3 billion / year will be recognized. At the same time, considering that the “profit target of Pb / year” will be raised from RMB 19.3 billion to RMB 2.3 billion, the company’s net profit will be increased by 1.5 billion / year.
Risk tips: cement demand is less than expected, price rise in peak season is less than expected, coal cost rise, etc
