\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 605 Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) )
Core view
The performance is in line with expectations, and the decline in performance is the short-term reason. The company released the performance forecast for 2021: in 2021, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 540 ~ 604 million, a year-on-year decrease of 45% ~ 51%, and deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 495 ~ 549 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3% ~ 13%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 is expected to be 79 ~ 144 million, a year-on-year change of – 26.84% ~ 32.87%. The main reasons for the decrease of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company are as follows: 1) the equity of 21q1 in Shanghai cell therapy group is changed from equity method to financial assets measured at fair value and the change is included in the current profit and loss, resulting in large non recurring profits and losses; 2) The company increased its efforts in game research and development, resulting in an increase in research and development expenses; 3) The price rise of raw materials in the poker business has led to an increase in procurement costs. The company’s performance is in line with expectations, the performance decline is a short-term impact, and the main business fundamentals are stable and upward.
Acquire card Amoy and lay out the whole industry chain of star card. The company has entered the sports culture collection card star card business. At present, the company has made strategic investment in card Amoy, with dak (a China’s largest card IP publisher) and cardhobby (China’s largest second-hand collection card trading platform). Daka has signed and issued products covering football (China Super League, the five top European leagues), basketball (CBA), E-sports (LOL), etc. Cardhobby accounts for 70% – 80% of the second-hand trading platform of China’s star card, with an absolute leading position and greater potential in the future. Cardhobby’s Gmv exceeded 600 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 300%.
The star card industry is developing rapidly, and China has great potential. At the global level, there are 2 billion top-level and top-level sales companies. From the secondary trading end, the current North American second-hand trading market exceeds US $10 billion, and the industry output value is expected to exceed US $90 billion by 2027. At present, the overseas second-hand trading market is more than five times the size of the primary market. The sports card collection industry has just started in China and has a broad fan user base. In the next 3-5 years, China’s sports industry market will break out and have great development prospects. At present, cards are an important value point in the sports industry. In 2020, the growth rate of China’s star card business will reach 205%, exceeding that of the global industry.
Risk warning: the star card business is not as expected; Policy supervision risk; The distribution of game version number shall be stopped.
Investment suggestion: the company’s three main businesses “game + poker + advertising” are stable, and there is a large business space for the new layout of star card outside the main business: 1) star card is an emerging market in China, from IP reserve to first-class issuance to second-hand trading, and the company is expected to build the largest comprehensive platform for star card trading in China; 2) The company will continue to expand IP resources, and the poker sales system and the company’s marketing channel traffic will have a significant synergistic effect on the star card; 3) On the basis of IP and physical card platforms, star cards in the era of metauniverse have more business development possibilities. Considering that the star card business is still in the investment layout period, we do not consider its performance contribution for the time being. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be 576 / 720 / 844 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 47.3% / 25.1% / 17.2%, EPS of 1.42/1.78/2.08 yuan, corresponding PE of 13 / 11 / 9x, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
