\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 305 Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) )
Core view
The company released the annual report of 2021: the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 3.02 billion / 410 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 85.8% / + 24.2% respectively. Among them, the revenue of 4q21 was 1.01 billion, the same / month on month ratio was + 93.5% / + 26.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 80 million, the same / month on month ratio was – 20.1% / – 32.7%. This year, the company plans to increase 4 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders and distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan.
1. Revenue side: core customers drive growth. In 2021, the top five customers of the company are Tesla / secoli / ZF / Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) / Polaris, and the total revenue of the top five customers is + 84.7% year-on-year, driving the overall growth. Among them, the revenue from Tesla, the largest customer, was + 70.6% year-on-year, and the fourth largest customer Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) dht double motor project was mass produced, with a revenue of + 190.5% year-on-year.
2. Profit side: the net interest rate is suppressed by the rise in the price of raw materials. 1) Gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of 2021 / 4q21 was 24.1% / 18.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -8.8pct / – 9.9pct respectively. In 2021 / 4q21, the price of aluminum ingot, the main raw material of the company, is + 20% / + 29% year-on-year respectively. We expect that the increase of aluminum price in 2021 will have a negative impact on the company’s gross profit margin of about 5-6pct, and the increase of sea freight will have a negative impact on the gross profit margin of about 1PCT; 2) Cost rate. In 2021 / 4q21, the three fee rate of the company was – 2.3pct / – 0.4pct year-on-year, and the R & D fee rate was + 0.7pct / + 0.9pct year-on-year respectively. In 2021, the company’s fee control effect was good, mainly because the management fee increased less, and the management fee rate was -1.8pct year-on-year; 3) Profit margin. The net interest rate of 2021 / 4q21 was 13.6% / 8.0%, with a year-on-year increase of -6.8pct / – 11.5pct respectively. Throughout the year, the net profit margin of the company was under pressure, since the gross profit margin fell, and the cost control and cost reduction had a positive effect.
Strong core customers + smooth expansion of customer & category, with high growth visibility. 1) The expansion of customer & category is smooth. In 2021, the aluminum die casting sector will add mass production of Great Wall DHT dual motor, Mercedes Benz motor housing, lucid power system, body system, battery system and other projects; New projects such as steering knuckle of new energy vehicles and valve sector of thermal management system are added to aluminum forging sector at fixed points or in mass production; In the field of aluminum extrusion, in addition to adding a number of fixed points for battery pack shell parts, the projects under research include anti-collision beam, threshold beam, subframe, battery pack box and other products; 2) Synchronous expansion of production capacity. In 2021, the company started the construction of “high performance aluminum alloy auto parts project” and “automobile lightweight aluminum profile precision processing project” located in Beilun, Ningbo, and planned to invest 2.5 billion to build a new mold and parts production base in Nanxun, Huzhou.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 4.12 billion yuan, 5.04 billion yuan and 6.12 billion yuan in 2022, 2023 and 2024, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 520 million yuan, 700 million yuan and 940 million yuan. Based on today’s closing price, PE is 30.9 times, 22.9 times and 17.1 times. It is covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the mitigation degree of chip shortage is lower than expected, the rise of raw material cost is higher than expected, and the recovery of automobile market demand is lower than expected
