Satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) )
C2 new profit contribution, industrial chain extension layout and high growth. Maintain “buy” rating
The company released an annual report, and achieved a revenue of 28.56 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 165.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 261.6%. According to the industrial chain extension layout and product price changes, we maintain the profit forecast and add the 2024 forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.83/10.47/11.58 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% / 18.6% / 10.6%; EPS is 5.13/6.09/6.73 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price, and PE is 8.4/7.1/6.4 times. The company’s C2 & C3 industrial chain capacity has increased steadily, while transforming into the field of low-carbon green new materials. Its products extend to the direction of high-end and low-carbon, with high growth in the future, and maintain the “buy” rating.
C2’s contribution to performance increment & C3’s profit is stable, and the leading position of light hydrocarbon is consolidated
The new C2 industrial chain contributes to the performance The first phase of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) project was put into operation in May 2021, with annual revenue of 7.79 billion yuan and net profit of 1.61 billion yuan. On the raw material side, the United States has sufficient ethane supply, with an export volume of 150 million barrels in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%; From 2021q3 to 2022q1, the average price of American ethane (MB) is 33.9/39.3/39.2 cents / gallon respectively, resulting in the relatively stable purchase cost of raw materials. On the product side, since 2022, the average price of Brent crude oil has increased by 35% compared with 2021, the central oil price has risen, and the price of ethylene has remained high. On the whole, the product price rises and the cost is stable, and the profit advantage of the company’s C2 industrial chain is prominent. The volume and price of C3 industrial chain increased simultaneously. 180000 T / a acrylic acid and 300000 t / a acrylic acid have been successfully started and are expected to be put into operation in June 2022. In 2021, the average price of acrylic acid and butyl acrylate increased by 56% / 83% year-on-year, propane increased by 40%, and the price difference expanded to improve the profitability of the industrial chain.
New production capacity has been put into operation one after another, and there is great room for growth in the future
C2 project: 1.25 million T / a ethane cracking, 400000 T / a high density polyethylene, 730000 T / a ethylene oxide and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a styrene. It is expected to be put into operation in June 2022. C3 project: 800000 T / a PDH, supporting 800000 T / a butyl octanol. It is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2023, and the project will truly realize the closed loop of acrylate industry chain. New material industrial park: 100000 t / a ethanolamine, 400000 T / a polystyrene, 150000 T / a battery grade carbonate and 300000 t / a carbon dioxide refining and recovery. It is expected to be put into operation in the third and fourth quarters of 2022. The subsequent planning is 100000 t / a ethanolamine, 400000 T / a polystyrene and 100000 t / A α- The Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a Poe series of olefin and carbonate units will be put into operation in succession. The company has full capacity under construction and has great room for growth in the future.
Transform the field of low-carbon green new materials and lay out the comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy
Low carbon green transformation. The transformation path of the company is clear. On the basis of bulk chemicals, the company has gradually formed three business segments: functional chemicals, new energy and new materials to build a low-carbon chemical new material technology company. Layout comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy. In 2023, the company’s by-product hydrogen is expected to reach 300000 tons / year. The company will layout hydrogen energy vehicles, energy storage and circular economy demonstration projects in the park. At the same time, it is planned to develop electronic hydrogen peroxide with hydrogen as raw material, produce acrylonitrile and DMC with nitrogen and CO2 produced by ethylene oxide, and adhere to green and low-carbon development.
Risk warning: the project progress is not as expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the international trade policy changes
