\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
The company released its 2021 annual report: the annual revenue was 21.086 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25.5%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.510 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 22.7% (the median value of the forecast was 3.577 billion), and the deduction of non net profit was 3.414 billion (the median value of the forecast was 3.482 billion), a year-on-year increase of + 23.0%. Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter was 5.163 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 9.3%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 787 million, a year-on-year increase of – 7.9%, and the non net profit deducted was 748 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 7.4%. The annual net interest rate was 16.65%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.37pct. In terms of revenue structure, gypsum board accounted for 65.35%, which was basically the same year-on-year, keel accounted for 13.07%, year-on-year + 1.5pct, and waterproof accounted for 18.36%.
The volume and price of gypsum board have risen simultaneously, and the market share has been significantly promoted: the market share has continued to increase. The company has 74 gypsum board production bases in China and 5 overseas Asia, Africa and Europe. At the end of the reporting period, the production capacity is 3.358 billion square meters, the construction in progress + planned production capacity is 480 million square meters, and the market share of production capacity and sales volume is about 68%, year-on-year + 8pct. In 2021, the company sold 2.378 billion square meters of gypsum board, a year-on-year increase of + 18%, and achieved a revenue of 13.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.9%. Several rounds of price increases resisted the rise of coal and protective paper, and the superposition continued to reduce the cost, and the unit price profit increased both. We calculate that the unit price of gypsum board of the company in 2021 is 5.79 yuan / square meter (year-on-year + 0.36 yuan / square meter, compared with 4.43, 5.43, 5.85, 5.60 and 5.43 yuan / square meter in 20162020 respectively), the unit cost is 3.64 yuan / square meter (year-on-year + 0.16 yuan / square meter), and the gross profit margin of gypsum board is 37.26% (year-on-year + 1.36pct). We estimate that the net profit of gypsum board (including keel, excluding waterproof) is about 1.37 yuan, an increase of about 0.13 yuan year-on-year. Taishan gypsum has a revenue of 10.912 billion (including keel), a net profit of 2.017 billion and a net interest rate of 18.48%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.89pct.
Accelerate the supporting keel, accounting for about 13% of the revenue: the keel achieved a revenue of 2.755 billion in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of + 40.3%, of which the revenue contributed significantly to the price increase of shunting cost. The gross profit margin of keel was 18.43%, with a year-on-year increase of -6.25pct, mainly due to the high pressure on raw materials. During the reporting period, the total production capacity of light steel keel was 488000 tons, ranking the largest light steel keel industry group in the world.
Waterproof profit is under pressure, cash flow is significantly improved, and the revenue accounts for about 18%. The annual waterproof revenue is 3.871 billion (excluding the annual revenue of Shanghai Taian from January to April 2021, Tianjin Aotai 2021 and Chengdu Saite 2021), with a year-on-year increase of + 17.8%, including a slight increase in the second half of the year. A total of 15 waterproof material production bases are arranged, with a year-on-year increase of 5. The gross profit margin of waterproof coiled material was 27.35%, with a year-on-year increase of -9.33pct, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials. Waterproof achieved a net profit of 245 million (full caliber), a year-on-year increase of – 52% (about – 30% of the parent caliber), corresponding to a net interest rate of 6.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 9 percentage points. In the second half of the year, we paid attention to the quality of income and focused on payment collection, so the income increased slightly, but the operating cash flow improved significantly, which was 463 million in the current period and – 161 million in the same period last year (after deducting the impact of funds collected to the parent company).
Other concerns include: ① the total income tax / profit is 6.4%, which is significantly lower, mainly due to tax relief, tax law plus deduction and special equipment tax credit; ② Waterproof accounts receivable / revenue was 48%, and other accounts receivable was 980 million, 57% and 420 million respectively in the same period of last year; ③ At the end of the period, the waterproof inventory and prepayment were low, and the gypsum board increased significantly; ④ The credit impairment of gypsum board was – 33 million and waterproof was – 8.1 million, compared with – 7.74 million and – 29.83 million respectively in the same period of last year; ⑤ R & D direction includes coal substitute, BIM, etc.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to continue to pay attention to ① the continuous expansion of gypsum board production capacity and the application space of sound insulation and thermal insulation system, ② the improvement of keel matching rate, ③ the gradual growth of waterproof business, and ④ the accelerated layout of mortar and coating. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be RMB 4017 million, RMB 4809 million and RMB 5289 million. The dynamic PE corresponding to the share price on March 22 will be 12x, 10x and 9x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the change of real estate policy is less than expected; Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials.
