\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 882 Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. The annual operating revenue was 2.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 67.30%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 371 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 168.46%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 343 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 192.37%; In the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue was 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 108 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.48%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 103 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 124.47%; Exceeding market expectations.
In 2021, the performance achieved rapid growth, and the scale effect continued to highlight.
(1) growth: in 2021, the company’s revenue increased by 67.30% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 168.46% year-on-year. Main reasons: ① industry level: in 2021, China’s machine tool industry continued its restorative growth trend since the second half of 2020, with strong downstream demand, and a significant increase in equipment investment demand in aerospace, new energy, export industry chain and other industries; ② Company level: the adjustment of sales mode and production organization mode of large-scale products has taken shape. The production and sales volume of small-scale and batch Lijia achieved rapid growth, and the annual production and sales increased by 103.74% and 97.02% year-on-year. The high-efficiency mode of modular platform + industry options of advantageous products such as Longmen and wojia has played a key role in market competition, and the market share of products has been further improved. In addition, by the end of 2021, the balance of the company’s contractual liabilities + other current liabilities was 965 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 36%, indicating that the company’s order growth is good and there are sufficient orders on hand, providing strong support for the high growth of performance next year.
(2) profitability: in 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s sales was 25.72%, and the net profit margin of sales was 13.59%, a year-on-year increase of 5.12pct; Quarterly, since 2020q4, the company’s net profit margin has increased quarter by quarter (9.26% / 11.52% / 13.26% / 14.05% / 15.00% from 2020q4 to 2021q4 respectively). We believe that the continuous improvement of the company’s profitability is mainly due to the continuous highlighting of the scale effect (for example, in the absence of new production capacity, the rapid growth of the company’s revenue scale since 2020, resulting in the continuous decline of the average cost) and the continuous decline of the expense rate. In 2021, the overall expense rate (excluding R & D expenses) of the company was 6.22%, which decreased significantly year-on-year.
(3) cash flow analysis: in 2021, the net cash flow generated by the company’s operating activities was 438 million yuan, higher than the net profit level of the current year, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%, which was mainly due to the increase of acceptance collection in the current period and the discount ratio lower than that of the previous year, while the payment of materials, various taxes and wages increased.
The prosperity of the machine tool industry continues, and the leading share is expected to continue to increase. From January to February 2022, the output of China’s metal cutting machine tools increased by 7.20% year-on-year, which rebounded compared with the second half of 2021, indicating that the prosperity of the industry is still at a high level. We believe that driven by the ten-year renewal cycle, the prosperity of the machine tool industry is expected to continue Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) as the leader of China’s private machine tools, driven by the craftsman spirit + market-oriented strategy, its revenue growth rate is much higher than that of the industry as a whole (the company’s revenue growth rate in 2021 was 67.30%, while according to the data of China Machine Tool Industry Association, the cumulative revenue of the cutting machine tool industry in 2020 increased by 28.90% year-on-year), It is also the fastest-growing enterprise among the enterprises of the head machine tool, and the fastest-growing enterprise among the enterprises of the head universal machine tool. It is also the fastest-growing enterprise among the enterprises of the head universal machine tool. Among the enterprises of the head universal machine tool, it is also the fastest-growing enterprise among the enterprises of the head universal machine tool ( 6885 Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) soas to improve the share.
There is a strong demand for machine tools in the field of new energy vehicles, and the company is expected to usher in the second growth curve. The demand for machine tools in the field of new energy vehicles comes from two aspects: ① structural changes give birth to the demand for machine tools. Compared with the traditional fuel vehicles, the structure of new energy vehicles has undergone significant changes. The parts represented by the powertrain need to be processed by customized machine tools, which leads to the new demand for machine tools. According to our calculation, the demand for new machine tools in the field of new energy vehicles will be 26.5 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025. ② The integrated die casting process meets the supporting requirements of machine tools. Integrated die casting is a subversion of the traditional automobile manufacturing process. It has significant advantages in cost, efficiency and processing quality. It is expected to penetrate rapidly in the field of new energy vehicles in the future. After the integrated die-casting molding, the corresponding machine tools need to be equipped to cut the burrs and burrs of die castings. If this process is considered to be used for vehicle processing, according to our calculation, the total demand for machine tools (mainly gantry) corresponding to 8 million new energy vehicles in China is about 44 billion yuan. It is expected that from 2022, as other new energy vehicle manufacturers except Tesla gradually follow up and promote the integrated die-casting process, the demand for relevant machine tools will burst Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) has significant advantages in the field of new energy vehicles: ① special planes in the field of new energy vehicles have been reserved in advance, with the advantage of first mover; ② In the processing of new energy vehicle parts and the cutting processing of supporting large die-casting machines, large gantry machine tools are the main models, which is the strength of the company and is expected to benefit fully. At present, the company is actively arranging and expanding in the field of new energy, which is expected to provide momentum for the growth of the company.
Maintain the “buy” rating: Based on the judgment of the company’s production capacity and downstream prosperity, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 470 million, 589 million and 719 million (the expected former value in 20222023: 474 million and 624 million), and the corresponding PE will be 22, 18 and 15 times respectively.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is weakening, and the expansion of the field of new energy vehicles is less than expected
