\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 982 Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) )
The event company issued its annual report for 2021.
In the past 21 years, the company’s revenue increased rapidly and Q4 performance improved significantly. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.26%, of which cold and live birds contributed 1.826 billion yuan and 761 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.04% and + 52.76%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 26 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 85.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 09 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 94.51%. The comprehensive gross profit margin was 17.56%, with a year-on-year increase of -10.26pct; The expense rate during the period was 16.74%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.18pct. 21q4, the company achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 779.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 31 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 119517%; The gross profit margin of sales was 17.05%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.73pct; The expense rate during the period was 12.77%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.12pct. In 21 years, affected by the price volatility of yellow feather chicken, the overall performance of the company decreased; With the upward trend of 21q4 yellow chicken price, the company’s single quarter performance is better.
The sales volume of cold fresh and live poultry increased significantly, and the price restricted the growth of profit. In 2021, the company sold 7607785 tons of ice fresh products, a year-on-year increase of + 22.22%; The revenue reached 1.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.04%; We estimate that the average sales price is 23.99 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of – 3.39%. The company sold a total of 363702 million live birds, a year-on-year increase of + 36.04%; The average sales price was about 11.45 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of + 9.99%. The gross profit margin of the company’s cold fresh business was 25.01%, with a year-on-year increase of -13.21pct; Loss of live poultry business. We believe that it is mainly affected by the market situation of yellow feather chicken. In the past 21 years, the price showed the trend of front high – middle low – rear high, and the average price of the industry is about 7.08 yuan / kg (including all kinds of yellow chicken). From the perspective of industry capacity, the total inventory of parents’ generation was about 22.97 million units at the end of 21, which was gradually close to the inventory of 18 years. In the process of capacity removal, we are optimistic about the price trend of yellow chicken in 22 years.
The development of cold fresh market continues to be promoted, and diversified business will help the development in the future. In the next 21 years, the company’s broiler breeding capacity will operate steadily, with an annual output of 75 million feathers. In the chilled poultry market, the company continued to develop the three eastern provinces, accelerated the development of stores, and achieved the growth of sales of chilled products. At the same time, the company set up subsidiaries to set foot in the field of cooked food and prefabricated vegetables, laying the foundation for the transformation and upgrading of the company. In addition, the company has entered the field of pig breeding. At present, 10000 breeding pig breeding projects, 200000 commercial pig breeding projects and 1 million pigs slaughtered annually and deep-processing projects of meat products are under construction. It is expected to be put into operation in succession in 22 years, so as to realize the implementation of pig breeding projects and contribute to the growth of industry performance.
The investment suggestion company is the leader of yellow feather chicken breeding in Central China. The company is committed to the production and sales of cold fresh meat and poultry; With the removal of the production capacity of the yellow feather chicken industry, the yellow chicken price shows an upward trend, and the gross profit margin of the company’s products will significantly benefit from the price increase. At the same time, the company may put the pig breeding project into operation in 22 years, and the overall performance of the company can be expected. We predict that the EPS from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.57 yuan and 5.71 yuan respectively, corresponding to 26 and 7 times of PE.
Risk tips
1. Risks of animal diseases and natural disasters;
2. Risk of raw material supply and price fluctuation;
3. Risk of price fluctuation of meat and poultry;
4. Risk of policy change;
5. Risks of food safety.
