\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
In 2021 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) achieved an operating revenue of RMB 21.086 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 25.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.894 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.74% and EPS 2.5% 0 yuan.
The simultaneous rise of volume and price brings performance growth, and the asset turnover efficiency improves the level of roe. The growth of the company's operating revenue is due to the simultaneous rise of volume and price of sales. In 2021, the sales price of gypsum board increased by 6.31% year-on-year and the sales volume increased by 18.91%, which is the second simultaneous rise of volume and price since 2011 (the first is 2017). The company's comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 1.85 percentage points year-on-year, mainly because the rise in the price of raw materials of waterproof materials could not be effectively transmitted, and the gross profit margin of waterproof materials decreased by 10.5 percentage points year-on-year; However, the price rise of gypsum board raw materials was well conducted, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.36 percentage points year-on-year. The decline of comprehensive gross profit margin resulted in the growth rate of the company's net profit lower than that of operating revenue, and the level of net profit margin decreased. However, the operating efficiency of the company's assets was improved, and the deduction of non diluted roe increased by 1.37 percentage points year-on-year.
The high market share continues to rise rapidly, and gypsum board China has entered the harvest period under the advantage of low cost. As the leader of gypsum board, the company's production line is arranged near raw material suppliers and in a suitable position with good market demand, occupying the commanding height of raw materials and market. In 2021, 74 gypsum board production bases will be built in China, realizing the full coverage of the national market. The company's capacity market share reached 68.53%, an increase of 9.45 percentage points over last year. The company's absolute leading scale advantage reduces the procurement cost of raw materials, and the construction and transformation of intelligent production line reduces the labor cost. The unit cost of raw materials of the company has decreased for three consecutive years from 2019, and still decreased by 0.04 yuan year-on-year in 2021 when the price of raw materials increased; The company continued to build the goal of "50 labor plants and 80 people base", and the unit labor cost decreased by 0.01 yuan year-on-year. The low-cost advantage under the national layout makes the company maintain the low price of medium and low-end products, and develop high-end products to improve the comprehensive price. The company's gypsum board business layout gradually enters the harvest stage.
The "integration" of global + supply chain layout and the development of "two wings" of waterproof coating bring new space. In 2021, the company's gypsum board production capacity has reached 3.358 billion square meters, and the goal of global layout of 5 billion square meters is progressing smoothly. Eight production lines in China are under construction, planning and design. The first phase of 15 million square meters in Tanzania and 40 million square meters in Uzbekistan are expected to be put into operation in 2022, and 40 million square meters in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Thailand are planned to be constructed. Some new production lines of the company in the supply chain are equipped with light steel keel production lines, and continue to move towards the production capacity target of 1 million tons of light steel keel. The keel production capacity will reach 488000 tons by the end of 2021. It has become the world's largest light steel keel company, realizing the coordination with gypsum board market resources. In addition, the company actively builds a new production line of phase II raw material protective paper, and the self-sufficiency rate can reach 60% after completion, so as to build a perfect supply chain. The waterproof material business, one of the two wings of the company, has 15 production bases through M & A, becoming the third largest waterproof material leading enterprise in China; The other wing coating business holds 100% equity of longpai and 49% equity of Lighthouse coating through self construction + acquisition to carry out national layout. The company's one body and two wings strategy has been implemented in an orderly manner, bringing new development space to the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: considering the better product structure optimization and coordinated development trend of the company, we expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 3.894 billion yuan, 4.699 billion yuan and 5.726 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS to be 2.30, 2.78 and 3.39 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to the PE value from 2021 to 2023, which is 13, 10 and 9 times respectively. Optimistic about the absolute advantages of the company's gypsum board, entering the harvest period, superimposing the new development space brought by the improvement of global layout and supply chain and the development of waterproof materials and coatings business, and continue to maintain the "strongly recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the sustainability and strength of real estate regulation and control policies exceeded expectations.
