\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 3.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%
The company released the annual report for 21 years. In the 21 years, the company achieved revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 21.09/3.51 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 25.2% / 22.7%, and realized deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 3.41 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23%, which is below the median value of performance forecast. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 5.16/790 billion in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of + 9% / - 8%. The gypsum board market share of the company has further increased in the past 21 years. Against the background of rising costs, the gross profit margin has increased against the trend, and the pricing power advantage is obvious. We expect the keel business matching rate to further improve, the keel income may usher in rapid growth, and the waterproof sector has completed the preliminary integration. We believe that the main business growth space of the company's gypsum board still exists, the waterproof sector has been on the right track, and the profit contribution will gradually increase, Continue to be optimistic about the development of "one body and two wings" of the company.
The main business volume and price of gypsum board increased simultaneously, the growth rate of keel was obvious, and the preliminary integration of waterproof sector was completed
The company's light building materials division achieved a revenue of 17.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. The main business of gypsum board achieved a simultaneous increase in volume and price. In 21 years, the revenue was 13.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, and the sales volume was 2.378 billion Ping, a year-on-year increase of 18%. We calculated that the company's gypsum board market share reached 68% in 21 years, further increased compared with 60% in 20 years, and the unit price was 5.79 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year increase of 0.36 yuan / Ping (range of. The completed housing area increased by 11.2% year-on-year in 21 years, which provided some support for the demand. The real estate completed in 22 years may still be resilient. At the same time, the proportion of non real estate demand such as affordable housing and factory buildings may increase gradually. Keel revenue was 2.76 billion yuan, up 40% year-on-year. The revenue of the waterproof division was 3.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16%, of which the revenue of waterproof coiled material / coating / waterproof engineering was 2.55/5.3/700 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.1% / + 23.3% / + 70.7%. The company was established in 21 years. The company has integrated the equity of several waterproof enterprises under the name of Beixin waterproof, completed the first stage integration of waterproof business, and realized the layout of 15 industrial bases in China. The waterproof sector is expected to continue to develop well in the future.
The gross profit margin of gypsum board increased against the trend, and the waterproof cash flow improved significantly
In the past 21 years, the company achieved an overall gross profit margin of 31.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9pct, of which the gross profit margin of gypsum board / keel / waterproof roll was 37.3% / 18.4% / 27.4% respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4 / - 6.3 / - 9.3pct. Under the background of rising costs, only the gross profit margin of gypsum board increased against the trend, and the advantage of pricing power was prominent. During the 21-year period, the expense rate was 13.0%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1pct, of which the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were + 0.2 / - 0.3 / + 0.1 / - 0.1pct respectively year-on-year. Finally, the net interest rate was 16.9%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.1pct. The company realized a net operating cash flow inflow of 3.83 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 1.99 billion yuan, of which the net cash flow from operating activities of waterproof building materials division in 2021 was 460 million yuan after deducting the influence of funds collected to the parent company, which was significantly improved compared with - 160 million yuan in 20 years.
The management adjustment injected new momentum into the company's development and maintained the "buy" rating
Recently, the management of the company is adjusting, which is expected to inject new momentum into the development of the company. Considering the growth of gypsum board sales in 22 years or facing base pressure, we slightly reduced the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years to 4.20/4.81 billion yuan (the previous value was 4.30/4.96 billion yuan), and increased the forecast of net profit in 24 years to 5.34 billion yuan. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies and considering the prominent leading position of the company, we give the company a 22-year 15x target PE, The target price is 37.20 yuan (previous value: 48.26 yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the demand for commercial and real estate decoration has fallen sharply, and the integration efficiency of waterproof business is lower than expected.
