\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 677 Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) )
The company issued the 2021 performance express, and the performance met expectations. According to the company's performance express, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 310 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 118 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 94 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. Some factors affecting the profit side of the company include: (1) non recurring profit and loss increased compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in government subsidies and financial management income of raised funds; (2) The epidemic in the United States and the decline of the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB, among which the exchange rate fluctuation has a great impact on the sales revenue, resulting in a decrease of more than 15 million yuan in the annual operating revenue and operating profit. In 2021, the company continued to increase investment in the research and development of new products and technologies, and relevant medical devices were registered and approved in China and sold on the market. Under the background of repeated epidemics and exchange rate fluctuations, the main business has still achieved relatively stable growth, which fully reflects the company's operating ability.
The endoscope market has high scene tolerance and low localization rate. According to Frost & Sullivan, from 2019 to 2024, the global hard mirror market will increase to US $7.23 billion (CAGR is 4.9%); The size of the hard mirror Market in China will grow to 11 billion yuan (CAGR is 11%). According to the company's announcement, from the perspective of competition pattern, at present, the localization rate in China's endoscope market is no more than 10%. In the next 3-5 years, it is expected that several domestic endoscope brands with strong strength will appear in China. From the perspective of clinical needs, the development trend of medical optical images is from clear (4K), deep (fluorescence) to understandable (Artificial Intelligence). Endoscope products have entered the era of 4K and fluorescence, and will develop towards 3D, artificial intelligence and surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in the future. At present, the application proportion of fluorescent endoscopes in China is still low. In the future, with the development of more surgical methods based on fluorescent endoscopes, fluorescent endoscopes are expected to be widely used in the future, thus giving birth to a broader market space.
The company's follow-up focus is rich, and the approval and listing of a series of new products may bring performance catalysis. According to the company's announcement and investor relations records, the catalytic factors for the company's subsequent performance include: the 4K ultra-high definition fluorescent laparoscope cooperated with Stryker is planned to be officially launched on the market in the third quarter of 2022, and the product model is expanded from the original 4 models to 12 models; 4K camera system was registered and approved at the end of January, and the production license is expected to be obtained at the beginning of March; 4K defogging camera system has entered the final stage of inspection and is expected to be registered and approved in the middle of 2022; Confocal endoscopes were registered and approved at the end of January, and the production license is expected to be obtained at the beginning of March; Fluorescent thoracoscopy is undergoing registration inspection and is expected to obtain registration approval in 2022; The prototype of 4K arthroscopy, fluorescent hysteroscopy and 3D fluorescent laparoscopy has been completed and will be submitted for registration and inspection in the first half of the year; The external vision system has been put on trial in the public health system shops in the province. The trial running in will be completed in the first half of 2022 and the product will be officially launched; Palmprint vein recognition products have been listed, and more than 20 enterprises have adopted the company's products for system integration. The application industries cover hospitals, rail transit, financial payment, smart communities, etc; The principle prototype of bone marrow cell image acquisition instrument has been completed, and the registration prototype is expected to be completed and submitted for registration and inspection in 2022.
Investment suggestion: Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price 79.21 yuan. We expect that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 12.5%, 49.5% and 32.5% respectively, and the net profit growth rate will be 22.2%, 46.3% and 34.0% respectively, with outstanding growth; The investment rating of Buy-A is given for the first time. The six-month target price is 79.21 yuan, which is equivalent to 40 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2022.
Risk warning: uncertainty of epidemic situation; Exchange rate fluctuations; The volume of new products is less than expected; Reduction risk.
