Event: on March 18, 2022, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the key points of automobile standardization in 2022.
Key investment points
Power exchange has been included in the key points of the work of the Ministry of industry and information technology, and the power exchange mode meets the rapid development: the key points of the work of the Ministry of industry and information technology proposed to "accelerate the construction and improvement of the charging and replacement standard system of electric vehicles, and promote the formulation of standards such as pure electric vehicle on-board power exchange system, power exchange common platform and power exchange battery pack, so as to lay an important policy foundation for promoting the scale of the power exchange industry. The power exchange mode has experienced three stages of" testing water - difficult exploration - ushering in a tuyere ". In the early stage, due to the small number of new energy vehicles and different standards, the development of power exchange mode was slow. Until April 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the notice on adjusting and improving the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, requiring that the selling price of new energy passenger vehicles must be less than 300000 yuan (including 300000 yuan) before subsidies. At the same time, in order to encourage the innovation and development of new business models such as "power exchange", The price limit of 300000 yuan will not be implemented for the new energy vehicle products adopting the "power exchange" mode, and the "green light" will be given to the vehicles in the power exchange mode; In addition, the "power exchange" was written into the government work report for the first time; In October 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology put forward the requirements for improving the standard system related to power exchange in the notice on starting the pilot work of power exchange mode of new energy vehicles; On November 1, 2021, GB / T 400322021 "safety requirements for electric vehicle power exchange" was implemented. The standard was approved and issued by the State Administration of market supervision (National Standards Committee) in April. It is the first basic universal national industry standard formulated in the power exchange industry in China's automobile manufacturing industry, including safety requirements, test methods and inspection rules, It also stipulates the minimum power change times requirements of 5000 times (snap type) and 1500 times (bolt type). This standard helps to improve the safety level of electric vehicles using power change technology in terms of mechanical strength, electrical safety and environmental adaptability, ensure the safety of electric vehicles, and help guide the product research and development of automobile enterprises. The key points of work issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology on March 18, 2022 proposed to promote the formulation of standards for on-board power exchange system, power exchange common platform and power exchange battery pack of pure electric vehicles, which is a further promotion of power exchange standardization.
The power exchange mode reduces the resource consumption at the social level and gradually gets the attention of the policy: for users, the advantages of the power exchange mode are: (1) saving time and cost and reducing the waiting time for energy supplement; (2) Save the battery purchase cost and allocate it to the subsequent battery leasing to reduce the operation threshold. From a social perspective, the power exchange mode can give greater play to the value of each battery and reduce the consumption of battery resources. In the context of high cost of raw materials for power batteries and China's dependence on imports for 70% of lithium and more than 80% of nickel and cobalt, the power exchange mode is an effective way to solve the high cost of raw materials, which has been paid attention to by the state and policies.
The replacement of electric vehicles began to penetrate from commercial vehicles and medium and high-end passenger vehicles, and the penetration rate gradually increased: at present, the replacement of electric vehicles is mainly concentrated in commercial vehicles and medium and high-end passenger vehicles. (1) Commercial vehicles: the replacement of commercial vehicles with electric vehicles has increased rapidly. In 2020, there were 11 models of commercial vehicles for electric vehicles and 197 models in 2021. They are mainly launched by Zhengzhou Yutong, JAC Hualing, XCMG group, SAIC Iveco, Nanjing Jinlong, Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) , Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) etc., that is, they are mainly promoted by large passenger and heavy truck enterprises. Commercial vehicles pay attention to the energy supplement efficiency and cost performance in the operation process, and the battery assets do not belong to individuals, so they prefer to change to electric vehicles. In the commercial vehicle to electric vehicle type, the lithium iron phosphate battery has developed rapidly, that is, the low-cost power exchange mode has developed rapidly in commercial vehicles. (2) Medium and high-end passenger cars: 15 passenger cars will be replaced by electric vehicles in 2020 and 54 in 2021. At present, the power replacement mode is mainly used to provide value-added services for owners of medium and high-end models in passenger cars. In the replacement of electric vehicles, ternary batteries are the main force, which also reflects the characteristics of high-end. At present, the passenger cars are mainly Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) and Geely cars, which are promoted rapidly. Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) belongs to Weilai OEM. Therefore, Weilai is the main driver of the replacement of passenger cars. At the same time, Geely also began to promote the replacement of electric models in 2021. From the perspective of the sales volume and penetration rate of electric vehicles, (1) commercial vehicles: the sales volume of electric vehicles has increased rapidly since 2021q2, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles has shown a rapid upward trend. The sales volume of electric vehicles in 2021q4 is 1417, with a penetration rate of 2.82%. (2) Passenger cars: the absolute value of the sales volume of electric cars has increased rapidly since 2020q4, and the sales volume of electric cars has exceeded 30000 in 2021q4, a record high. In 2021q1, the penetration rate of replacing passenger cars with electric vehicles increased to 4.58%, and the slight decline in the penetration rate of replacing electric vehicles in 2021q2-q4 was due to the significant increase in the sales volume of rechargeable passenger vehicles.
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Risk tip: the promotion of power exchange mode is less than expected, and the R & D Progress of equipment manufacturers is less than expected.
