Key investment points:
Pig: it has both safety margin and upward elasticity
Investment suggestions: we reiterate that the current pig sector is still in an important layout window period: 1) the continuous de industrialization of production capacity, which has decreased month on month for eight consecutive months since July last year, the decline of production capacity has maintained high intensity, the direction of de industrialization has maintained high stability, and it is expected to accelerate under multiple factors such as supply and demand and cost; 2) The pig price is in the bottom area, and the downward space is very small, which is in an environment extremely conducive to the deregulation of production capacity; 3) The valuation is still at the bottom. In particular, the head enterprises are at the bottom corresponding to the valuation in 2022, which is sufficiently defensive and brings greater flexibility to the upward period of pig price. Therefore, it’s still at a very good configuration timing point, so it’s still at a very good configuration timing point. Continue to recommend pig sectors, continue to recommend pig sectors, focus on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) etc.
Poultry: white chicken continues to suffer long-term losses, and the industry may usher in improvement
Investment suggestion: for white chicken, the industry boom continues to be depressed, the production capacity continues to be surplus, and the demand for end products continues to be weak, which has led to the decline of the price of the whole industry chain. Since last year, the price of the strongest parent generation seedlings has also continued to fall, almost falling to a low profit state. The parent farm has suffered losses for a long time, which has led to the elimination of some production capacity. At present, the industry is close to the bottom, and some companies have long-term investment value. It is recommended to Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) .
In terms of yellow chicken, the price fluctuated significantly due to the decline of demand in the short term, and the price change trend was different due to the different impact of the epidemic situation. Throughout the year, yellow chicken is expected to show a trend of first low and then high after the continuous elimination of production capacity, and the industry fundamentals are expected to regain an upward trend. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity and the further improvement of industry concentration, we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of Huangji sector, and recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
Animal protection: the sector is at the bottom of the valuation, focusing on the catalysis of non plague vaccine
Investment suggestion: affected by the loss of downstream breeding, the boom of the animal protection industry has declined, and the performance of some enterprises has declined. Affected by this, the overall valuation of the animal protection sector has fallen to a historical low. In the long run, the downstream large-scale process, the change in the demand for reduced and alternative antibodies, and the research and development of multi linked and multivalent new vaccines are expected to continue to promote the expansion of the animal protection industry. The research and development of non classical swine fever vaccine has made steady progress, and many enterprises have made positive progress. They pay attention to the catalytic effect of African classical swine fever vaccine. We mainly recommend Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) , followed by Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) , etc.
Planting: grain prices fluctuated at a high level, and grain imports from January to February were + 7.7% year-on-year
Investment suggestion: the prices of wheat and corn remain high, and the demand for seeds remains high. In the long run, the revision of the seed law is conducive to the improvement of industry concentration and the market share of leading companies. The commercialization of medium – and long-term genetically modified seeds will continue. Recommend Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , pay attention to Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , etc.
Feed: feed prices continue to rise
Investment suggestion: it is expected that the overall production and sales of feed will continue to grow in the first half of 2022, especially pig feed, aquatic feed and ruminant feed. The price rise of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal has slightly squeezed the gross profit margin of feed processing, but the leading enterprises have a strong ability to transfer costs to downstream breeding plants, and the market share is expected to increase. Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , focusing on Hefeng animal husbandry, is recommended.
Pet: optimistic about the investment main line of domestic pet substitution
Investment suggestion: we believe that China’s pet industry is still in a rapid development, the fundamentals remain unchanged, the negative impact of the epidemic on the industry is coming to an end, and the industry has regained the development trend of rapid growth; With the declining Engel coefficient of pet consumption and the rising trend of pet consumption upgrading, the proportion of consumption in pet diagnosis and treatment, pet supplies, pet nutrition and health care, pet services and other fields is expected to continue to rise in the future. Compared with other market segments, pet food and pet medical have natural advantages. We mainly recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , and Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) , which are related to pet health care and medical treatment.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. The sector, especially the leading valuation, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety; The fundamentals of Huangji industry have maintained an upward trend after continuous capacity removal. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized capacity, the industry concentration has further improved, and the investment opportunities of Huangji sector have been continuously optimistic; In terms of seed industry, the revision of Seed Law and the promotion of transgenic commercialization will promote the improvement of industry concentration and the expansion of market space, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of leading enterprises; In terms of feed, the recovery of pig production capacity will continue to support the feed sales in the first half of the year, and pay attention to the price of feed raw materials in the second half of the year; In terms of dynamic insurance, it is in the period of industry reform. With the improvement of industry concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises will be gradually clear; Be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet track. Give the industry a rating of “recommended”.
Risk tip: focus on the risk that the company’s performance is lower than expected, the risk of sharp fluctuation of market price caused by emergencies, the risk of epidemic disease in the breeding industry, the risk of policy uncertainty, the risk of price fluctuation, the risk of extreme weather, etc.
