1) the price of silicon material is flat month on month, and the demand for silicon material is increasing. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the price of dense material this week was 243000 / T, a month on month increase of 0%. Since the beginning of January 2022, the price of silicon material has rebounded continuously. The main reasons are as follows: 1) China’s installed capacity project in 2021 has been postponed to the first quarter of this year. There is strong demand for installed capacity in overseas regions such as India, the operating rate of downstream components and silicon wafer enterprises has been increasing, and the demand for silicon material has increased unabated; 2) In the case that the silicon material manufacturers have signed the long order in March (or even oversigned), China’s mainstream silicon material manufacturers are currently in the process of no material to sign. Therefore, the silicon material transaction in the Chinese market this week is flat, and some scattered orders have been concluded; 3) The price of silicon wafer rises and the acceptance of silicon material increases. Looking forward to the follow-up, the silicon wafer operating rate continues to maintain a high level. The silicon wafer output is expected to increase by 1-2gw month on month in March. The silicon material supply is less than the increment of demand. It is expected that the silicon material price may continue to increase slightly in the short term, and the decline of silicon material price in the whole year may be less than the market expectation.
2) the price of silicon wafer has not changed this week, and the demand continues to be strong. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the average price of single crystal 166 / 182 / 210 silicon wafer was about 5.45, 6.70 and 8.85 yuan / wafer, with a month on month increase of 0%, 0% and 0%. The purchase enthusiasm of battery chips is high, and the demand increment is higher than the supply increment of silicon chips. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the operating rate of the two front-line enterprises this week is maintained at 80%, the operating rate of integrated enterprises is 90% – 100%, and the operating rate of other enterprises is maintained at 80% – 100%; In March, most enterprises have production expansion plans, and it is expected that the output in March will increase by 1-3gw month on month. In the future, if the insufficient supply of crucibles affects the rod pulling link, the market will aggravate the situation of silicon wafer supply in short supply, and the silicon wafer price will rise accordingly.
3) battery: the cost conductivity is better than expected, and the cycle to cycle ratio is 0%. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the mainstream transaction prices of 166 / 182 / 210 battery chips were about 1.10 yuan / W, 1.14 yuan / W and 1.15 yuan / W respectively, with a month on month increase of 0%, 0% and 0% respectively; The demand for silicon wafers and the recovery of silicon components also rebounded under the condition of strong demand for silicon wafers and warm batteries. In terms of demand, the transmission cost pressure of the battery chip factory this week was better than expected, and there was no significant reduction in the operating rate, but the growth on the demand side still slowed down, and the subsequent battery chip price is expected to remain stable.
4) components: the price has not been significantly adjusted. The price of components has not been significantly adjusted. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the mainstream transaction prices of 166 / 182 / 210 components this week were 1.87 yuan / W, 1.89 yuan / W and 1.89 yuan / W respectively, unchanged month on month. The price of components generally began to rise in the upstream, and there was no obvious adjustment. However, affected by the price rise in the upstream and the price rise of auxiliary raw materials, some component enterprises are brewing to increase the price. The bidding price of components has increased recently, but it is also necessary to consider the acceptance of the downstream. In terms of hjt components, the price of hjt components fluctuates little, and the mainstream price this week is concentrated between 2-2.1 yuan / W.
From January to February 2022, the export of components doubled. According to solarzoom’s estimation, the component exports in January and February 2022 were 11.32gw and 14.37gw respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 96% and 102% respectively; From the perspective of export amount, the export amount of components in January and February 2022 was US $3034 million and US $3851 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 118% and 127%. It is judged that the significant growth of component export in January and February was mainly contributed by the markets of India and Europe.
5) auxiliary materials: the price of glass and adhesive film has not changed this week. This week, the average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass is maintained at 26 yuan / m2, and the average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is maintained at 20 m2; EVA adhesive film is maintained at 13.5 yuan / m2 and Poe adhesive film at 15.5 yuan / m2. The price has remained stable for six consecutive weeks. In the near future, the downstream demand is strong, and the adhesive film price is supported. It is expected to rise slightly in the near future. From the perspective of raw materials, the operating rate of the soda ash industry this week was 89.75%, up 1.29% month on month. The soda ash inventory this week increased to 1.3893 million tons, an increase of 42200 tons month on month, and the soda ash price remained stable. The EVA market continued to pick up this week, and the price of photovoltaic materials rebounded to 23400 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 17% since March. According to Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) announcement, the EVA device will be shut down on February 28 for technical upgrading and capacity expansion. The estimated shutdown time is 28 days. It is expected that the supply of EVA particles will be in short supply in March, and the price has room for upward growth.
