Report guide
Due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and other reasons, since March, major new energy vehicle enterprises have raised the price of models under the pressure of rising costs, including Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng, Zero run, Nezha, Great Wall Euler and other brands. The price rise of new energy vehicles has spread in an all-round way in the industry. We believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about demand, production and sales, and grasp the industrial increment trend of domestic rise and electric intelligent double-click from top to bottom, From bottom to top, grasp the stocks with large changes in customer and product increment, and grasp the stocks with 22q1 exceeding expectations.
Key investment points
Market Review
The auto sector fell 0.64%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.94% in the same period, and the auto industry was 0.30 percentage points ahead of the CSI 300 index. In terms of sector ranking, the auto industry ranked ninth among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, at the midstream level compared with other industries. The new energy vehicle index rose 0.13%. Among the sub sectors, the rise and fall of passenger vehicles / commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts / auto services this week were 0.17% / - 3.34% / - 1.45% / - 0.77% / - 1.31% respectively.
Market hot spot
Due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and other reasons, many new energy vehicle enterprises have raised the price of models since March. This week, the price increase of new energy vehicles further spread in the industry. Tesla raised the price twice a week, covering all models of model 3 and model y, and the cumulative price increase for three times ranged from 14000 to 30000 yuan Byd Company Limited(002594) increase the price of some new energy models of Dynasty Series and Ocean series by 3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan; Xiaopeng automobile will raise the price of models on sale by 1 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 000 yuan from March 21; Zero run car raised the price of all C11 models, including 20000 for luxury and premium models and 30000 for performance models; Nezha increased the price of u Pro / V / V Pro models by Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan; Geometric car raises the price of some new energy models of geometric a Pro / geometric C / EX3 Kung Fu by 3 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan; Great Wall Euler will raise the price of all models of good cat (including GT version) by 6 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan. It can be seen from the price increase statements of various automobile enterprises that the cost of raw materials has increased sharply, the supply of batteries, chips and parts is tight, and the inflation pressure is the main reason for the price increase.
This week's view: the price rise of new energy vehicle enterprises has spread in an all-round way
The price rise of new energy vehicles has spread across the board, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about demand, production and sales. The reasons are as follows: ① the head new energy vehicle enterprises have sufficient orders, and the price rise reflects their confidence in demand and brand; ② The price rise since March has spread across the industry, not an individual case of a single car enterprise. It is expected that the mentality of consumers will be balanced and adjusted. ③ Not only new energy vehicles, but also fuel vehicles have been raising prices in disguise in the past year. Due to lack of core and other reasons, fuel vehicle discounts have been tightened, which is also raising prices for consumers. Under the same price increase, compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have obvious advantages in acceleration performance, entertainment and intelligent experience. At the same time, the recent continuous rise in oil prices highlights the economic use of electric vehicles, and the consumption trend of new energy vehicles is irreversible! Grasp the industrial increment trend of domestic rise and double-click of electric intelligence from top to bottom, and grasp the individual stocks with large changes in customer and product increment from bottom to top. At the current stage, based on the clue of 22q1 exceeding expectations, it is suggested to select Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , the leader in the subdivided field of growth and certainty, the target Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , the independent brand supply chain and Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) . The medium-term dimension continues to be optimistic about the rise of domestic production and electric intelligence, focusing on four sub areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats, providing better opportunities for callback.
Investment strategy and key recommendations
Under the background of chip shortage in 2021, the sales volume is under pressure, the industry inventory is at a historical low, the replenishment cycle + demand recovery, and the growth rate of passenger car sales in 2022 is expected to be 5-8%. In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine plants, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The accelerated iteration of models in the era of electric intelligence has greatly improved the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The previously solidified zero adjustment relationship is expected to be broken, the domestic parts and components industry chain rises with the trend, and the accelerated promotion of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends, We are optimistic about the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four subdivided areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile (H), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai.
Parts and components of the ''s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) quantification & Tesla supply chain), Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) (Tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), etc., focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
Chip supply is lower than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
