Key investment points
Investment suggestions: 1) complete vehicles and parts: in February 2022, China's automobile sales volume was 1.737 million, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 4.268 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. Restricted by the repeated local epidemic and the rise of oil prices, the sales volume of traditional Chinese automobiles was under short-term pressure. We believe that with the mitigation of chips and the improvement of the epidemic, the demand for automobiles is expected to be further released, and the penetration of electrification and intelligence is accelerated, There are still good investment opportunities in the automotive industry in the medium and long term. It is suggested to focus on independent brands and high-quality parts enterprises in the field of electrification and intelligence. 2) New energy vehicles: in February 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of 184.3%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 765000, with a year-on-year increase of 154.7%. With the rise in the prices of raw materials and power batteries, Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng and other auto enterprises announced to raise the model prices again. We believe that the increase in the price of new energy vehicles has a limited impact on the demand, However, the transmission of raw material prices is more conducive to the stability of the profits of the industrial chain. According to the business situation express from January to February disclosed by some lithium battery enterprises, the performance of most enterprises is still good. Therefore, we still suggest paying attention to the leading enterprises in technology and market position in the new energy vehicle industry chain.
Market review: last week, the automobile (Shenwan) industry index fell 0.64%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.30 percentage points. Among them, the key sub sectors rose or fell by 0.17% for passenger cars, 2.82% for commercial vehicles and 0.77% for auto parts. The new energy vehicle index rose 0.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.07 percentage points. Among them, the key sub industries rose or fell by 4.19% in power battery, 1.57% in lithium positive electrode, 2.72% in lithium negative electrode, 0.43% in lithium diaphragm and 1.62% in electrolyte.
Industry trends: 1) Ministry of industry and information technology: start the revision of safety related standards for electric vehicle power battery; 2) The price of Tesla domestic models increased again; 3) The cost of purchasing batteries by automobile enterprises has increased. Company dynamics: 1), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) : Announcement on the acquisition of equity of the joint venture subsidiary, announcement on the main business data from January to February 2022, and announcement on the annual performance express of 2021; 2) Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) : annual report for 2021; 3) Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) : performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022.
Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the policy is lower than expected.
