This week's view
[Baijiu sector]: sector is stable, wine enterprises annual report quarter opened
Plate review: the performance of the sector was stable, and the annual report season of wine enterprises began
March 14th ~3 18, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.94%, the food and beverage sector fell 3.63%, the Baijiu sector fell more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 4.02%. Baijiu sector specific, gold seed (-0.08%), -0.78%, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (-1.52%), Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) (-1.62%) rise and fall in the front. Following the excellent business data from January to February of 2022, which is the first two months of 2022, and the first two months of the year following the last week of the week in which a host of wine companies revealed excellent business data for the first two months of 2022. In the week after the first week of the year in which a host of wine companies revealed the excellent 2022. After a week in which the 603 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) \ \allmeet expectations, and 22q1 is expected to have a good start, which is expected to remain unchanged. Specifically:
1) Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) : the potential energy of the cave reservoir continues to release, and it is optimistic that the opening is better than expected. In 2021, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 4.577 billion yuan (+ 32.58%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.38 billion yuan (+ 44.74%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.290 billion yuan (+ 45.58%). The company's 21q4 profit growth slowed significantly month on month, mainly due to: 1) the rhythm of payment collection confirmation; 2) Expense confirmation. Throughout the year, the company's performance is brilliant, and the potential energy of cave Tibet continues to be released. It is expected that the proportion of cave Tibet series revenue will increase from 30% to nearly 40% in 21 years. In terms of the progress of a good start, the proportion of the company's good start is required to reach 50%, the dealers are basically completed, and Hefei generally exceeds the plan. In addition, the dynamic sales of Dongzang series are strong during the Spring Festival (supplementary delivery began on the second day of the year), and the structure is still improving. The profit of 22q1 is expected to increase higher than expected.
2) Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) : 21q4 was dragged down by the epidemic in the short term, and the trend of structural upgrading continued. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.788 billion yuan (+ 3.34%); The net profit attributable to the parent company is 325 million yuan (- 1.95%); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 322 million (- 2.58%). 21q4 company was affected by the epidemic (mainly from October to November), and the performance of 21q4 company declined. In the whole year, the revenue in the province was 1.37 billion yuan, basically the same as that in the same period last year (accounting for about 80%), and the growth rate outside the province remained 36% to 390 million yuan; Benefiting from the continuous expansion of consumption upgrading in Northwest China and the promotion of key customer operation, the proportion of product revenue of more than 100 yuan has increased by 11.3% to 62%, and the profitability has been steadily improved. In 22 years, it is expected to continue to upgrade the overlay structure by accelerating the development of markets outside the province to achieve more than expected development.
3) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : the effect of dual brand strategy appears and the channel develops with high quality. In 2021, the company achieved a year-on-year growth of 83.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 114.35% year-on-year. In terms of structure, the revenue of the company's medium and high-grade liquor increased by 81.9% to 3.87 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, the proportion of revenue decreased by 6.0 percentage points to 84.6% compared with the same period last year, and the ton price increased by 10.4% to 335000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year; The revenue of low-grade liquor (Tuopai Daqu) increased by 218.7% to 700 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the ton price increased by 0.1% to 26000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. The channel of structural upgrading continued, and the effect of dual brand strategy began to show. In terms of channel quality, the company's revenue in the province reached 1.18 billion yuan (+ 127.6%), which increased by 0.04 percentage point to 25.8% compared with the same period last year, and the average size of dealers increased by 139.3% to 2.527 million yuan / unit year-on-year, with strong stability; The market revenue outside the province increased by 80.8% year-on-year to 3.0 billion, and the average dealer scale increased by 28.7% to 1.678 million yuan / home. The performance growth is mainly due to the main sales market and old dealers, with both channel volume and quality rising. 22q1 has a high profit growth under the acceleration of payment collection and strong certainty (the performance express shows that the net profit of 2022q1 is expected to be 460 million yuan ~ 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52% ~ 85%; the operating revenue is about 80% higher than that of the same period of the previous year).
In addition: this week Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) plans to invest more than 9 billion yuan to expand production. After the completion of the project, the company is expected to increase the annual output of 51000 tons of raw wine and 134400 tons of raw wine storage energy. The company is expected to increase the annual output of 51000 tons of raw wine and 134400 tons of raw wine storage energy Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) to hedge the cost pressure, the price of some products is raised normally.
The spring strategy meeting: Dialogue 12 Liquor Enterprises - Baijiu structural upgrading trend unchanged, 22Q1 business generally good, this week we held the online spring strategy meeting, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Tian You De Jiu, Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) and other wine enterprises to communicate, overall, Baijiu structural upgrading trend is not changed. 22q1 operation is generally good:
1) benefiting from the steady expansion of the 1000 yuan price band & the continuous business reform of the company, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) both performed steadily and well:
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : 1) eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : steady increase in volume and price, and the core strategy is to increase market share. Realization path: ① continuous improvement of brand value ② strengthening digital construction ③ promoting the market share of emerging channels (strengthening the expansion of new retail e-commerce and KA) ④ guiding the transformation of core terminals to brand chain terminals, small dealers to direct sales teams, and thickening channel profit space through the launch of cultural and creative products ⑤ refining the assessment mechanism, focusing on the assessment of sales quality, sales growth and market price. 2) Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : 1) strategic positioning: with the eighth generation double wheel drive, it is the future Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is a sharp tool for breakthrough in product system and price band, and the strategic direction is unremitting; 22 year core development goal: focus on consumer cultivation and brand building, do not impose rigid requirements on sales tasks, sales objectives and payment collection rhythm, and pay attention to consumer cultivation, brand improvement and product scarcity; 3) 22 years' work: integrate the eighth generation digital marketing system into the series of liquor (first for wuliangchun, which ranks first), create a model market, focus and invest resources in different cities across the country, do a good job in dynamic marketing planning + the combination of employee performance and dynamic marketing, and continuously improve the brand image.
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : 1) Guojiao 1573: ① growth: the low proportion increases by about 1% every year, which is expected to continue in the future; ② Structure: it is estimated that the proportion of high and low income accounts for 6:4, with half of the amount; ③ Price: adopt the price accompanying strategy and raise the price by a small margin. The frequency depends on the market, industry, economy and sales; 2) Special music: special music is mainly 60. Special music will stabilize 300 yuan and drive the volume of medium-grade wine; 3) Laotequ: improve the price grade, gradually raise it to the price band of 400 yuan, and the income and volume have exceeded 19 years. 4) 1952: cooperate with the operation of brand rejuvenation, improve the grade + select the core market + restrict dealers, and there is no large-scale planning in the near future; 5) Gao Guang: the expansion attempt of new consumers is still groping for medium-term and short-term plans. 2) Anhui and Xinjiang regions benefit from the rapid economic development of the province and enjoy the bonus of capacity expansion. Both Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) 22q1 are expected to have a good start, while Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) due to the impact of the epidemic in January, the performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter
Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) : 1) economy: the current epidemic prevention policy is tight inside and loose outside + Xinjiang's economy takes high-quality development as the main goal, and the overall environment is conducive to the development of wine enterprises (all central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have established enterprises in southern Xinjiang, listed companies have investment promotion plans, policy support at the State Council level, and changes in the whole team, ideas and direction. Therefore, Xinjiang's economy can be expected in the future, and the growth rate in southern Xinjiang will be higher). 2) Product: this year, the company will take price control as the overall idea. Specifically, the core products are xiaolaojiao and yiliwang (the revenue of xiaolaojiao accounts for the highest proportion, less than 1 billion level products; yiliwang has a scale of 350 million; Tequ has several products with a scale of Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) million). This year, we will continue to improve the core position of xiaolaojiao, continue to develop yiliwang (at present, the operation modes of the two channels are different) and eliminate inferior products.
3) Jiangsu is less affected by the epidemic situation. The main products of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) / Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) are sold vigorously, and there is a demand for replenishing inventory after the festival;
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : 1) dream 6 +: set a target of 10 billion yuan (divided into two steps: Sales caliber of more than 10 billion yuan and financial reporting caliber of more than 10 billion yuan), build focus and model markets outside the province, expand surrounding provinces + strengthen advantageous provinces + cultivate remote provinces, and pay attention to the construction of core consumer circles; 2) Crystal dream: adopt the following strategy, and dream 6 + drive crystal dream in large quantities; 3) Sea blue and sky blue: digital control outlets will be used to control the distribution of profits to ensure that dealers have a reasonable interest margin; 4) Dream 9 / manual class: recently launched the master version of manual class of image products, with a price of more than 4000 and no pursuit of quantity in the short term; 5) Shuanggou / expensive wine: Shuanggou accounts for about 10%.
Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : 1) V Series: it means that the company will strengthen the promotion of V9 / rectify the market of v3. In the short term, the growth rate of V9 is faster than that of V3, and V9 accounts for more than half; 2) Open and elegant: the growth rate exceeded expectations. Sikai is still growing steadily, but the growth rate has slowed down on the high base. At present, the growth rate of folio and V9 is higher than that of Sikai, but it will continue to be the largest single product for a long time in the future. Folio (the second largest single product) / elegant (the third largest single product): benefiting from the price band expansion / product advantages, the growth of folio and elegant exceeded expectations; 3) Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) D10 / 20: rapid growth. In order to promote Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) price band and prevent shrinkage, D20 / d30 new products were launched last year.
4) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) it is expected that the performance of 22q1 will be similar to that from January to February, the potential energy of blue and white will continue to release, and the market outside the province will expand smoothly. In 22 years, it is expected that the market around Shanxi will maintain high growth, while the market south of the Yangtze River will continue to maintain rapid growth;
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : 1) growth rate: the fastest growth rate of blue and white series exceeds 50%, followed by laobaifen. Bofen maintains rapid growth under the background of shipment in December, and the growth rate of Panama is similar to that of Bofen. 2) Proportion: the proportion of blue and white series is higher than that of Bofen, and the total proportion of blue and white Fen and Bofen is expected to be close to 65%. 3) Qinghuafen: hold high and fight high, the growth rate is faster than the average level, and the actions such as building the potential energy of qing30 brand are relatively solid. The high growth rate was achieved from January to February. The volume and price fluctuations during the Spring Festival this year are expected, and we look forward to the development this year; 4) Laobaifen: relying on product upgrading + market expansion around Shanxi, the growth rate is ahead of other products; 5) Bofen: the implementation of the contract system is currently a process of stopping quantity and stabilizing price.
5) Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) although there was a significant decline in performance affected by the epidemic in the province at the end of last year, the trend of structural upgrading remains unchanged, and it is still worthy of special attention in the past 22 years;
Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) : 1) Golden Emblem year series: sales revenue of 200 million + in 21 years, with a stable growth rate of 30% in recent years, of which the revenue of Golden Emblem in 18 and 28 years accounts for more than 10%; 2) The revenue of Jinhui series is about 2.5 billion, accounting for about 3.5% of the annual revenue of Jinhui series; 3) Star Series (price band of about 30-200 yuan): the annual income is 900 million + in 21 years, accounting for more than half of the income. Due to the main medium and low-grade products in the star series, the growth rate has declined. The company has adjusted the price and quality by launching high-quality three-star and four-star products, and completed the dislocation layout sales and gradual replacement.
6) Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) 22q1 performance is affected by factors such as Beijing East Olympic Games, epidemic situation and pig price. It is expected to maintain a stable performance in the short term. The stripping of real estate business is in progress, and the bottom is expected to turn over;
Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) : 1) white cow II: the proportion of income has decreased from 60% to 50% + at present. It is not a focus at present. Under the condition of stable price, the stock has decreased due to factors such as epidemic situation, upgraded products and population reduction in Beijing; 2) Treasure / Niulanshan No. 1: since its launch, there has been an epidemic for most of the time. At the beginning, it met the expectations, and the growth rate began to decline in 21 years. Niulanshan No. 1 has a good momentum to make up for the decline share of treasure. With the improvement of the epidemic, the company is confident to do a good job of these two products; 3) Niulanshan No. 1: distribution is realized through the original advantageous regional dealer team, starting from local areas with high consumer awareness and consumption level, and then to the whole country. Places such as East China, Shandong and Beijing will take the lead in launching.
7) tianyoude liquor benefited from the continuation of the consumption upgrading trend in Qinghai, with the rapid growth of products above 300 yuan. In January, the organizational structure of the marketing center was adjusted to facilitate the development of group buying, and the profitability of the whole year is expected to remain stable;
Tianyoude liquor: 1) guozhide G6: its sales exceeded 40 million in 21 years, with a rapid growth rate, and the price increased by 20 yuan to 588 yuan this year; At present, there are dual empowerment of big country brand marketing and real year certification; The quota system is adopted, and the channel gross profit is the highest. 2) Large single product: the sales of star series is 200 million yuan (80-140 yuan), the sales of export-oriented is 120 million yuan (more than 150300 yuan), and the sales of eight 4A workshops, altitude series and Xiaohei exceed 50 million. The overall sales volume of tianyoude accounts for 60%. 3) Mutual aid: mutual aid products of 0-50 yuan shrink by 10% at 1-2 yuan, and the price range of 0-50 yuan is shrinking. 4) Ultra high end products: create a 20 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) yuan product, improve brand image and create opinion leaders.
8) Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) and Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) 22q1 non-standard products have excellent performance and strong certainty of profit-making performance Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) : 1) Lotus Series: 21q4 has launched three products with prices ranging from less than 1000 yuan to 2000 +. Among them, lotus 16 is the main product (quota system), lotus 32 is mainly to improve brand value, and the main sales channels are brand chain stores and self-supporting e-commerce. It is developed with appreciation and investment attraction. This year, the probability of simultaneous increase in volume and price is high. 2) Diaoyutai: the price was raised in June last year. At present, there is a balance between supply and demand, and there is no expectation of price increase for the time being; 3) Lai Gaohuai: the layout of medium and high-end Luzhou flavor brand is promoted in the form of personal fans.
Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) : 1) Diaoyutai enamel color / liquid gold + National Taiwan black gold decade + Abstract: the quota of the three products increased slightly compared with the same period last year, the total amount is expected to be about 1200 tons, and the gross profit margin will continue to be 40-50% + level; 2) Datang secret manufacturing / Shouliang (private brand): both are new products. The company cooperates with Datang wine (sauce wine) to launch wine, which is divided into three price bands of 1300 / 600 / 1199. Through the operation of sales system and partner system, brand publicity / Shouliang pricing 599 will be carried out in the next stage. It is a medium and high-end sauce wine, which has not been started at present
