Main points:
The recent market correction is obvious. In this report, we comb from the perspective of rolling, dynamic P / E ratio and fundamental trend, trying to find high cost-effective valuation and boom mismatch sectors and individual stocks. At present, the overall valuation of the industry has entered the value range. We are optimistic about the high growth trend of special paper and the allocation opportunities brought by low value and high cost performance. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair caused by the potential policy catalysis of leading household enterprises; The external disturbance of export enterprises has led to the valuation bottoming. It is suggested to pay attention to the high prosperity race track of outdoor leisure sports.
Household sector: pe-ttm is lower than the 1 / 4 quantile level in recent three years, customized furniture is close to the lowest level in recent three years, and Baima has entered the value allocation range. At present, the overall sector valuation reflects the current situation and expectation of the completion of real estate and the decline of sales. However, in terms of the fundamentals of individual enterprises, the leading white horse has reflected the fundamental toughness in the past three years. From the near end point of view, the growth rate of head customization and software home enterprises in the same period is generally higher than that of social furniture. From the medium and long-term point of view, software furniture has a large room to improve the penetration rate, and the customized leader continues to broaden the channels such as assembly. The government work report of the two sessions mentioned the pillar and supporting role of real estate, and the potential policy catalysis is expected to boost the industry expectation. We believe that the current leading household white horse has entered the long-term allocation value range. Focus on the household industry: Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) : the company’s packaging revenue continues to grow rapidly, and continues to strengthen the front-end traffic entrance under the background of household consumption traffic differentiation Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) : the company’s 22 young people took the initiative, deepened the reform of management system and continued to promote the development of all channels, multi brands and all categories Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) : the company takes the cabinet and wardrobe as the core to carry out multi category extension, and the results of multi-channel layout are emerging. It is optimistic about the future and continuously improve the market share Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) : channel reform will be gradually realized to performance, and new categories will be launched based on the original strong sofa channel and gradually increased Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) company focuses on its main business, with strong independent brand power and accelerated channel expansion; Minhua Holdings: China’s functional sofa is the absolute leader. It continues to make efforts to create the second growth curve of mattresses, and its market share and performance are in a strong upward channel.
Papermaking sector: the valuation of special paper head enterprises is the lowest in recent three years, with gold allocation and cost performance. This round of pulp and paper price increase has the dual support of demand and raw materials. Among them, the demand side suggests paying attention to the high boom of white card export orders and the release of cultural paper publishing orders one after another; Affected by geographical conflicts, tight shipping, strike of pulp mills and other factors, the supply of raw wood pulp is tightened, the short-term pulp price operates strongly, and the cost side strongly supports the rise of paper price. Special cardboard blocks have strong ability to raise prices and land, and the valuation of the sector is very cost-effective. The current pe-ttm of the sector is the lowest point in three years, and the valuation needs to be repaired urgently. Recently, the prices of high prosperity special paper such as food card, grasin paper and decorative base paper have also been raised successively. Compared with bulk paper, special paper has double barriers at the production and sales end, and the implementation of price increase is expected to be better under the direct selling mode. Continue to be optimistic about Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , and the company has strong α Property, the growth rate in the short and medium term is expected to significantly lead the industry, with the dual driving force of high profit growth and valuation repair. It is suggested to pay attention to Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) : the company has the capacity of multi paper and flexible production and delivery, quickly respond to downstream demand fluctuations, stabilize costs and maintain stable profits Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) : the company is a leader in China’s medium and high-end decorative base paper, and continues to improve its scale and market share under the trend of high-end and centralization of the industry.
Consumer light industry sector: the valuation of the sector is under pressure. In addition to the impact of the downturn of macro consumption capacity, the domestic paper sector is also affected by the rise of raw materials and the intensification of market competition, resulting in the poor transmission of price increase, the increase of costs and related expenses, and the weak profitability of the sector; The cultural goods sector is under pressure under the influence of policy regulation such as “double reduction”. It is suggested to pay attention to the high increase of C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) : 21q4 revenue. The company continues to optimize the product structure and is optimistic about the improvement of price increase and profit Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) : the valuation is close to the bottom, which has reflected the pressure of double reduction. In the later stage, with the normalization of the epidemic, the performance is expected to be gradually repaired.
Export sector: the epidemic has enlarged the fundamental volatility, and the volatility has narrowed in the post epidemic era. Disturbed by external factors, the current pe-ttm is at a historical low. Due to geographical conflicts, complex external environment, tight shipping capacity, rising international energy prices and rising prices of some raw materials, the general valuation of export-oriented enterprises is under pressure. From the perspective of individual stocks, the current general valuation bottoms out, the preferred order trend continues to rise, and domestic sales open up export-oriented enterprises with value revaluation opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to the post epidemic era. The outdoor sports consumption scene has high prosperity and strong continuity. (for details, see the report on undertaking high demand for outdoor sports and leisure related products, and enjoy the high demand of TPE ) (see the special topic of TPE Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) : pay attention to the double-click characteristics brought by the high growth of domestic and foreign sales, and the core product supplier of exquisite camping and outdoor leisure high scenery scenes.
Packaging sector: the rolling P / E ratio of the sector fluctuates less, the defensive attribute is prominent, the expected target of cost repair is preferred, and the second curve expansion opens up long-term space for enterprises. Due to the rising price of raw materials and other factors, the cost pressure of the sector has increased slightly recently, and the valuation has been slightly corrected. The supply and demand of metal packaging two-piece cans have improved, and the competition pattern has been continuously optimized. Recently, aluminum prices and tinned steel have fluctuated greatly, and the cost of raw materials has increased. We are optimistic about the price increase and landing and the restoration of industry profits brought by the synergy between leaders and the enhancement of voice. The long-term growth logic of paper packaging under the background of replacing plastic with paper and upgrading consumption remains unchanged. In the short term, it is under phased pressure by the rise of base paper price and profit. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) : the company’s large packaging layout is advancing steadily, and the growth momentum in the future is sufficient Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) : the company has arranged a new tobacco industry chain and continuously optimized the product structure. The second growth curve is Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) : the traditional business has grown steadily, and the positive aluminum foil and high resistance diaphragm projects have been implemented one after another Shantou Dongfeng Printing Co.Ltd(601515) : the main business is stable, and the layout of large packaging and large consumption continues to be promoted.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risks, sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, sharp fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, tight shipping capacity, and lower than expected macro consumption capacity.
