Ping An View:
Resource endowment determines that floating offshore wind power has great potential. The far-reaching sea has a large area, good wind resources and great potential for development; Research shows that most of the world’s wind resources are located in waters with a water depth of more than 60 meters. When moving towards the far-reaching sea, the traditional fixed foundation offshore wind power will face more technical and economic challenges. The greater the water depth, the more materials used for the fixed offshore wind turbine foundation, and the construction difficulty will also increase; It is generally believed that when the water depth exceeds 60m, the floating technical scheme is more applicable than the fixed one.
It is still in the early stage of development, and the pace of production of demonstration projects is accelerated. Since 2009, floating offshore wind power has been verified by multiple prototypes and small-scale test wind farms, which has confirmed the feasibility of the technology. At present, the basic technical scheme of floating offshore wind power has not been finalized, and new technical schemes continue to emerge. By the end of 2021, three floating offshore wind farms have been put into operation in the world, all of which are small-scale wind farms of experimental nature, with a total scale of about 105mW; Hywind tampen, the first commercial project invested by Norwegian national oil company equinor, will be put into operation in 2022, and several small floating wind farms will be put into operation in the next two years. In 2021, China’s first floating offshore wind power platform “Three Gorges pilot” will be put into operation in Yangjiang, Guangdong Province, and a number of prototypes will be put into operation later. The admission of Chinese enterprises is expected to accelerate the development of global floating offshore wind power.
There is a large space for cost reduction, and the commercial development can be expected. Although the cost is still high and commercialization will take time, floating offshore wind power has a clear cost reduction path. The improvement of monomer scale and the increase of single unit capacity are considered to be an important starting point for cost reduction of floating offshore wind power. Based on the accumulation of offshore engineering and fixed offshore wind power, floating offshore wind power has a good supply chain foundation and has the potential of rapid cost reduction in the future. The recent sea right bidding of offshore wind power projects in major countries also reflects the development trend of offshore wind power to floating. According to the prediction of the Global Wind Energy Association, from 2026, floating offshore wind power will enter the commercialization stage with new installed capacity reaching GW level, and Europe, China, Japan, South Korea and the United States will dominate the global floating offshore wind power market.
Investment advice. The core manufacturing links of floating offshore wind power include wind turbine, floating foundation, mooring system and dynamic submarine cable. The latter three are significantly different from the traditional fixed offshore wind power. With the gradual rise of floating offshore wind power, the relevant enterprises in these links are expected to usher in great development opportunities. Based on the current supply performance and other conditions, it is suggested to focus on Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Asian Star Anchor Chain Co.Ltd.Jiangsu(601890) , potential supplier of buoy for semi submersible floating foundation Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , and supplier of wind turbine Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) .
Risk tips: 1. The cost reduction rate of floating offshore wind power may be lower than expected. 2. In the process of commercialization, the development of floating offshore wind power depends on policy support, and there is a risk that the policy support is not as strong as expected. 3. If the technological progress of offshore wind power with fixed foundation exceeds expectations, the commercialization process of floating offshore wind power may be delayed.
