Key points:
Market review: in the past two weeks, the brokerage index fell by 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7pct. In the past two weeks (3.7-3.18), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 5.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.3%, the CSI 300 index fell by 5.1%, and the gem index fell by 1.3%. Non bank finance (Shenwan) fell by 4%, ranking 6 / 31, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.1 percentage points; Among them, the brokerage index fell 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points.
The top five securities companies were: Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (+ 22.2%), Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) (+ 14.7%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (+ 10.3%), Shanghai Chinafortune Co.Ltd(600621) (+ 6.7%), Polaris Bay Group Co.Ltd(600155) (+ 4.8%). The securities companies with the last five increases are: Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) (- 6.6%), Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) (- 7%), China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) (- 7.1%), Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) (- 7.5%), China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) (- 8.2%).
Industry weekly data: the daily average stock based trading volume of the two cities has been enlarged for two consecutive weeks
Brokerage business: last week (March 14-march 18), the daily average stock base turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1219.7 billion yuan, up 3.2% month on month. In the past two weeks, the market volatility has intensified, and the average daily trading volume has increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. Investment banking: last week (March 14-march 18), the scale of equity financing was 38.4 billion yuan (mom + 85%); The IPO Financing scale was 19.8 billion yuan (mom + 132%), and the refinancing scale was 18.6 billion yuan (mom + 52%). In terms of bond issuance, since March, the issuance scale of corporate bonds and corporate bonds has been 33 billion and 177.4 billion respectively, accounting for 75% and 45% of March 21, respectively.
Capital intermediary business: as of last Friday (March 18), the balance of margin trading and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1593.8 billion yuan, down 1.2% month on month; The balance of two financial institutions accounted for 2.53% of the total circulating market value of a shares, a slight increase.
Industry highlights: the financial commission of the State Council held a special meeting, which significantly boosted market confidence
(1) the Finance Committee held a special meeting to stabilize market confidence. At the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council on March 16, it was stressed that monetary policy should take the initiative to respond and new loans should maintain a moderate growth; Actively introduce policies favorable to the market and prudently introduce contractionary policies; Long term institutional investors are welcome to increase their shareholding ratio. In conveying the spirit of the meeting of the financial committee, the CSRC said that it should solidly promote the comprehensive implementation of the reform of the stock issuance registration system, encourage listed companies to increase their holdings and repurchase, and guide fund companies to purchase their own shares.
(2) on March 17, CSDCC announced that from April, the payment proportion of the minimum settlement provision for stock business was reduced from 18% to 16%. The reduction in the payment proportion of settlement provisions will help to improve the available funds of securities companies. It is expected to release about 38 billion yuan of available funds for securities companies and improve the efficiency of fund use. Although the amount of funds released is limited, this policy implements the spirit of the special meeting of the financial committee and transmits a positive signal of stabilizing market confidence.
Investment advice
With the convening of the meeting of the finance committee, the determination of the central government to stabilize growth was once again established, and the confidence of the capital market improved significantly. It is expected that this year’s loose monetary environment will support market transactions, the full registration system is expected to accelerate the implementation, and the prosperity of the securities industry is improving. At present, the valuation of Pb in the securities sector is only 1.48x, which is in the 14% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years. The sector has high configuration value. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management and maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk; The risk of sharp decline in the secondary market; Industry competition intensifies risks, etc.
