From January to February, the crude steel output was 157.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of - 10%; The output of pig iron was 132.13 million tons, a year-on-year increase of - 10.8%. From January to February, the steel output was 196.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of - 6%; The apparent consumption of steel was 181863000 tons, a year-on-year increase of - 3.78%. From January to February, China exported 8.234 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of - 18.8%; The import was 2.207 million tons, a year-on-year increase of - 7.66%. The net export was 6.027 million tons, a year-on-year increase of - 22.23%.
As of last week, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity of Chinese steel mills was 81.88%, 5.85 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, higher than that of the same period in 2019. As of last week, the annual average blast furnace operation rate was 79.34%, significantly lower than that of the same period last year and 2.4 percentage points lower than that of 2019. Overall, it reflects that the current supply is at a low level. As of last week, in March, the average gross profit per ton of rebar was 542 yuan / ton, the average gross profit per ton of hot-rolled sector was 705 yuan / ton, and the average gross profit per ton of cold-rolled sector was 742 yuan / ton. Compared with February, it increased by 150 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton and 99 yuan / ton respectively..
In February, the growth of automobile, household appliances and infrastructure in the downstream industries of the iron and steel industry chain picked up, and the decline of real estate and construction machinery narrowed; We believe that the era of high turnover of real estate will become history. Real estate enterprises have entered the era of synchronous and steady development of land acquisition - commencement - Construction - Sales - completion. Guided by the policy of stabilizing the real estate market, the real estate chain will gradually stabilize. Real estate may gradually stabilize, and the demand for construction steel is supported.
Last week, production restrictions were relaxed, steel supply increased month on month, iron ore inventory decreased month on month, and coke inventory increased month on month. Last week, the consumption of rebar, hot-rolled sector and cold-rolled sector decreased by 324000 tons, 28000 tons and 25500 tons month on month; The output increased by 43000 tons, 115700 tons and 29000 tons month on month. Iron ore port inventory decreased by 2.24 million tons month on month; The average daily output of independent coking plant increased by 16500 tons month on month; The total national coke inventory increased by 378000 tons month on month.
Investment suggestion: at present, the overall supply and demand of the steel market is still weak, but the prosperity of the demand (Infrastructure) of some downstream industries has improved marginally; The price of iron ore on the raw material side has entered a weak trend, the industry has entered a new cycle (carbon control + ultra-low emission + merger and reorganization + not encouraging export), the competition pattern has improved, and the ability of supply adjustment has been enhanced. It is suggested to allocate two types of Companies: pay attention to the improvement of the investment margin of downstream infrastructure, resulting in the recovery of demand for pipes and building materials, and relevant beneficiary companies. Considering the current low valuation of the steel sector, it is recommended to pay attention to listed companies with high long-term dividend level.
Risk tip: under the internal circulation development pattern, the growth of domestic demand for steel is lower than expected; The issuance of local special bonds lagged behind, and the growth of infrastructure investment was lower than expected.
