Q1 performance review by price band: the dynamic sales of high-end liquor are stable, and the performance of the second and third tier liquor industry exceeds expectations.
1) in terms of high-end liquor, Maotai has a strong momentum of accelerated development. Maotai liquor series is driven by two wheels. A series of measures taken by new leaders will be implemented, and the performance growth may exceed market expectations Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Spring Festival movable sales are relatively stable, superimposed with the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase, and the annual performance growth is expected Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) previously, the price increase was partly reflected in the profit side. At the same time, the implementation of equity incentive boosted morale, the dynamic sales performance was good, and the long-term potential could remain upward.
2) in terms of nationalization of the secondary high-end, looking back on 2021, most of the secondary high-end liquor enterprises have increased the single product rating. The price increase is expected to continue in 2022, and the secondary high-end liquor enterprises may continue to take price increase as the profit driving point. Among them, the process of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) nationalization is smooth, and the preliminary results of channel work are shown.
3) in terms of regional liquor, in Suzhou liquor, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) are in a relatively high position in the industry. Supported by strong economic growth momentum, the Yanghe River and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , the two leading regions of the Soviet Union wine, are expected to make good use of their regional advantages and fully benefit from the opportunity to accelerate expansion of the secondary Baijiu market. Thanks to the good development trend of the whole liquor market in Anhui, many brands of emblem have been developing well, and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) has led the upgrading of Baijiu consumption. It is expected that the whole year of 2022 will continue to grow steadily and the brand fundamentals will be strong.
Investment suggestion: the economy continues to recover and famous wines enter the value range. The data show that the performance of 22q1 famous liquor is generally in line with expectations, the high-end liquor is stable, the secondary high-end liquor enterprises are highly elastic, and the dynamic sales are generally in good condition.
1) in terms of high-end liquor, with Q1 making a good start, we continue to be optimistic about high-end liquor. In Q2, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company continue to increase month on month. Focus on recommending Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and other high-end liquor leading enterprises with strong performance predictability.
2) in terms of secondary high-end liquor, Q2 will enter the performance off-season, and the price will become the main competitive point of the industry. Therefore, we believe that with strong policy support and the current situation of continuous economic recovery, consumption will further recover, and the prosperity of the sub high-end wine industry is expected to continue to rise. Under the condition that the volume and price of secondary high-end liquor enterprises generally rise at the same time, we continue to be optimistic about the national and secondary high-end liquor enterprises, such as Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) and other secondary high-end liquor leading enterprises with smooth progress in nationalization and high-end. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) .
3) in terms of regional liquor, thanks to the strong economic consumption and the general improvement of recognition in the region, we are optimistic about regional leading brands such as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and so on. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) .
Risk warning: the downstream demand of the economy is affected by the demand for high-end Baijiu, policy risk, COVID-19 epidemic risk, food safety risk, and inadequate sample of channel research data.
