Key investment points:
Driver tracking: the policy inflection point has arrived, and the Beijing Shanghai property market shows signs of recovery
From January to February 2022, the sales area of new real estate houses reached 157.03 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 9.6%. The downward trend of the real estate market has not ended, and the policy remains to be continued. In terms of second-hand houses, similar to new houses, the transaction area of second-hand houses in Yihan think tank monitored the city in February 2022 decreased by 37.74% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of the decline. However, judging from the transactions of new houses in Beijing and Shanghai, there are signs of recovery in some high-energy cities. Zhengzhou also issued a policy to relax purchase restrictions in February, which launched the first shot of policy easing in second tier cities. On March 16, the gold stability meeting of the State Council also said that “with regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective countermeasures to prevent and resolve risks, put forward supporting measures for transformation to a new development model… And carefully introduce contraction policies”. We expect that more loose policies will be introduced in the future, the inflection point of the policy has gradually arrived, and the property market is expected to gradually pick up.
In terms of completion, the completed residential area from January to February 2022 reached 891478 million square meters, down 9.6% year-on-year, lower than the level in the same period in 2021, 2019 and 2018. According to the data of the previous two months, with the continuous thunderstorm of private real estate enterprises and the impact of holidays, the completion and delivery are also delayed, and the completion performance in 2022 is relatively low. In February, the export volume of furniture and parts reached US $3.962 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.50%. The decline in exports is in line with our expectations: on the one hand, the high base in 2021 is rare in recent years, and the decline in exports is a high probability event; Second, the supply side problem in the United States is still difficult to solve in the short term. Factors such as supply chain, shortage of workers and freight continue to make the speed of shipment unable to catch up with the speed of orders, and there is a large backlog of orders. With the downward pressure of real estate performance and completion cycle, enterprises still face a certain downward pressure.
Industry prosperity tracking: 315 promotion is coming, and the preferential strength of customized home furnishing enterprises is not reduced
From January to February, the national retail sales of furniture was 21.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, which was further expanded compared with December 2021 (- 3.1%). The performance of furniture retail was relatively sluggish, and the industry is expected to further shuffle. The retail sales of household appliances reached 132.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, better than the same period in 2021 and 2019. The household appliance industry continued to recover.
From the perspective of enterprise dynamics, with the advent of the annual “315” activity, major customized home furnishing enterprises have launched promotional activities, and the overall price belt continues to sink. Overall, the total package price of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) has declined to a certain extent compared with the same period in 2021 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) the total price of the package has increased compared with the same period in 2021, but the value of the gift has increased significantly due to the gift of smoke machine and stove and the free upgrade of health + antibacterial board. On the whole, the 315 promotion has not decreased, and the market competition is fierce.
In terms of home appliances, the online retail volume of integrated stove industry in February was 210 million yuan, an increase of 175.4% and 26000 units, an increase of 92.4%, showing a trend of “simultaneous rise in volume and price”. After sustained high growth, the floor sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) performance this month was relatively low. From January to February, online retail sales increased by 6.5% year-on-year, and online sales fell by 13.8% year-on-year in February. The average price of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) floor sweeping reached 2895 yuan, an increase of 57.7% over the same period in 2021. On the whole, with the recovery of real estate still waiting for some time, we believe that we should pay more attention to the leading enterprises that seize the opportunity of industry reshuffle and the target enterprises with stronger product consumption attributes, so as to reduce the impact of real estate on industrial chain enterprises as much as possible.
