This report mainly answers three questions: 1) how to judge the future competitiveness of the three new battery technologies? 2) What changes will the new battery technology bring to the industrial chain? 3) What are the investment ideas in the period of technological change? The core conclusions are: short-term TOPCON and p-type IBC have advantages, medium-term TOPCON, hjt and IBC may coexist, and long-term transformation to TBC & HBC is expected; Under the change of new technology, we are more optimistic about equipment, battery components and silver paste & silver powder.
1. How to judge the future competitiveness of the three new battery technologies -- the balance between efficiency and cost
Origin: the average efficiency of perc mass production in 21 years is 23.1%, approaching its theoretical limit of 24.5%. N-type silicon wafer has natural advantages in minority carrier lifetime and higher efficiency limit.
Technical principle: the core structure of photovoltaic cell is PN junction and electrode. The efficiency loss is mainly divided into optical loss and electrical loss. Hjt & TOPCON reduces electrical loss and IBC reduces optical loss.
Efficiency: IBC (superposition) TOPCON (double-sided) hjttopcon: passive contact without opening is realized. In the future, Polo structure can be upgraded. The theoretical limit of double-sided TOPCON can reach 28.7%. Hjt: PN junction is formed by crystalline silicon / amorphous silicon heterojunction. Intrinsic amorphous silicon passivation film is sectord between crystalline silicon and amorphous silicon, and the theoretical limit can reach 28.5%. IBC: electrode is placed on the back to reduce light shielding loss, and tunneling oxide layer is used for electron transmission, In the future, TOPCON or hjt technology can be superimposed, and the upper limit of efficiency can reach 29.1%
Cost: IBC (type P) TOPCON (single side) hjt sub route: TOPCON reduces silver consumption and flakes; Hjt relies on the localization of low-temperature silver slurry, reducing silver consumption, slicing and equipment cost; Sensitivity analysis of IBC based on mask process optimization, slicing and equipment cost reduction: for each 1PCT increase in efficiency, yield and CTM, the cost can be reduced by 14, 1 and 3 points respectively, and the silicon wafer can be thinned by 10 points μ， Reduce the cost by 4 points. It is expected that the technical economy of the new battery in 23 years will comprehensively surpass perc
Mass production: TOPCON (single side) IBC (P type) hjttopcon: 29gw is in production, more than 40gw is planned in 22 years, and the average efficiency of leading mass production is 24.5% hjt: 5GW is in production, more than 9gw is planned in 22 years, and the average efficiency of leading mass production is 24.5% IBC: 0.2gw is in production, more than 8.5gw is planned in 22 years, and the average efficiency of leading mass production is 24%
2. What changes will the new battery technology bring to the industrial chain
Battery
(1) TOPCON: some perc production lines can be used to add tunneling oxide layer and doped polysilicon layer, mainly including three methods: LP preparation of polysilicon film + diffusion, LP preparation of polysilicon film + ion implantation, PE preparation of polysilicon film + in-situ doping
(2) hjt: a new production line, but the process flow is simple, adding intrinsic amorphous silicon passivation layer and heterojunction structure; Amorphous silicon coating technology includes PECVD and Cat-CVD, and transparent conductive film (TCO) coating also includes PVD and RPD; Low temperature silver paste urgently needs localization, and hjt's demand for silver paste has increased greatly; The increased demand for TCO coating drives the high demand for targets
(3) IBC: add graphic processing processes such as back mask and slotting to form TBC and HBC batteries with higher efficiency in combination with TOPCON and hjt.
Silicon wafer:
(1) parameters: different technologies have different requirements for silicon wafer performance parameters and thickness. For example, TOPCON needs relatively (compared with other technologies) low resistivity and minority carrier life, and IBC needs high resistivity and minority carrier life
(2) crystal drawing: the purity of quartz crucible carbon carbon thermal field is required to be improved, and the consumption of single furnace is increased. (3) slicing: diamond wire continues to develop in the direction of thin wire, or there is a technological change in which tungsten wire replaces steel wire
Components:
(1) welding:
Equipment: single side welding or new series welding machine
Material: IBC electrode position change needs to reduce stress, or adopt low-temperature conductive adhesive or conductive backplane packaging
(2) adhesive film: n-type battery has high requirements for water resistance, excellent anti PID performance of POE / EPE, and the permeability may be improved
3. Investment ideas in the period of technological change
Investment dimension 1: in the short term, see the order of performance release, Equipment new auxiliary materials battery components old auxiliary materials
Investment dimension 2: medium term performance elasticity, Equipment new auxiliary materials battery components old auxiliary materials
Investment dimension 3: looking at the sustainability of performance in the long run, old auxiliary materials components Equipment new auxiliary materials batteries. Based on the above analysis of short, medium and long-term performance changes, we mainly recommend battery module equipment, battery modules and new auxiliary materials enterprises. Equipment enterprises: with both performance flexibility and long-term good pattern, it is recommended to focus on [ Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ] (TOPCON), [ Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ] (hjt), [ Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ] (IBC); Battery module Enterprises: enjoy excess profits in the short term and achieve performance sustainability in the long term by optimizing the component pattern. They mainly recommend [ Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ] (HPBC), [ Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ] (hjt) with first mover advantage, and suggest paying attention to [ Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) ] (TOPCON), [ Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) ] (TOPCON), [ Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) ] (IBC). New auxiliary material enterprises: the low-temperature silver paste used in hjt, target and conductive adhesive used in IBC are generally from 0 to 1, with great elasticity, but the long-term development and competition pattern are not clear. Pay attention to [Juhe shares] (TOPCON & hjt), [ Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300842) ] (hjt & IBC), [ Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co.Ltd(002079) ] (hjt).
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, the policy implementation is less than expected, and the global trade friction brings risks. The calculation is for reference only, and the degree of industry competition is higher than expected.
