Core view
The trading volume of new houses and second-hand houses this week decreased compared with that of last week. This week, the number of new houses sold in 47 cities was 26000, down 15.0% month on month and 57.1% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 16000, down 11.2% month on month and 54.5% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by – 7.9%, – 14.1% and – 4.3% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 51.0%, – 55.2% and – 57.4% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 12000, down 8.4% month on month and 42.8% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 11000, down 10.1% month on month and 42.7% year-on-year; 1、 The growth rate of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities was – 10.1%, – 9.0%, – 15.2% month on month, and – 41.4%, – 40.7% and – 54.3% year-on-year respectively.
The inventory of new houses and the decontamination cycle have increased compared with last week. The number of newly built houses increased by 4.05% month on month to 1.02 million over the previous month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 560000, with a month on month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The decontamination cycle was 11.0 months and a month on month increase of 0.8; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 266000 units, up 1.1% month on month. The de stocking cycle was 9.9 months, up 0.8 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 205000 units, up 0.8% month on month. The de stocking cycle was 11.1 months, up 0.8 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 89000 units, unchanged month on month. The de stocking cycle was 15.4 months, down 0.1 month on month.
Compared with last week, the overall land market fell in price, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 172, down 55.1% month on month and 79.3% year-on-year; The planned construction area of the land traded was 14.04 million square meters, down 50.4% month on month and 71.4% year-on-year; The total land transaction price was 12 billion yuan, down 41.0% month on month and 84.4% year-on-year; The average floor price of land traded was 852 yuan / m2, up 18.8% month on month and down 45.5% year on year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 1.63%, down 44.6% month on month and 91.9% year-on-year.
Investment advice
On March 16, the Finance Committee held a special meeting, proposing that monetary policy should be actively responded to and that new loans should maintain a moderate growth; With regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model; Actively introduce policies that are beneficial to the market and prudently introduce contractionary policies. Since then, the central bank, the CBRC, the safe, the Ministry of Finance and the CSRC have also made intensive statements on the real estate industry, releasing a strong signal of maintaining stability. The Ministry of finance made it clear that it would not expand the scope of real estate tax pilot cities during the year. We believe that the suspension of the pilot expansion of real estate tax is mainly due to the consideration of stabilizing real estate and steady growth. In the short term, it will help boost market confidence and guide the industry expectation to change in a positive direction. Although the investment and sales data released by the Bureau of statistics on March 15 exceeded market expectations, the actual market sales were still sluggish, and the boosting effect of recent local policies on the market was relatively limited. At the same time, real estate enterprises are still facing great financial pressure, the early credit support is not in place, and the debt repayment peak will also be ushered in from March to April. Therefore, the unexpected short-term data may not continue. We believe that there is still room for continuous further adjustment on the supply and demand side and the capital side of real estate enterprises at the local level, and the expectation of policy improvement is still in place. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
