Sector performance: last week, the banking sector fell 0.17%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.77pct (CSI 300 index fell 0.94%); According to the first level industry classification standard of CITIC, it is listed as 4 / 29 of all industries. In terms of individual stocks, Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) (4.77%), Bank Of Changsha Co.Ltd(601577) (1.78%), Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) (0.75%), Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (0.34%) led the increase Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (- 4.70%), China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) (- 3.55%), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (- 2.93%), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (- 2.93%), Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) (- 2.82%) decreased significantly.
Capital: basically stable. Last week, the central bank put a net 190 billion yuan into open market operations, shibor001 and shibor007 were – 6BP and – 3bp respectively compared with last week, and dr001 and dr007 were – 6BP and – 2bp respectively compared with last week; 1. 3. The issuing interest rate of 6-month interbank certificates of deposit was + 1bp, – 1bp and – 1bp respectively compared with last week, with stable and abundant liquidity.
Hotspot tracking:
The financial commission set the tone to boost confidence, and the steady growth policy is expected to continue to work. Last week, the Finance Committee of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market issues. The “one bank, two sessions” and the safe held a meeting to convey the spirit of the meeting of the Finance Committee. The meeting focused on reaffirming the direction of macro and regulatory policies and stabilizing the confidence and expectations of the capital market. Focus on monetary policy, credit policy and risk resolution in the real estate industry. 1) We will guide credit lending. The meeting of the Finance Committee stressed that “monetary policy should take the initiative to respond, and new loans should maintain a moderate growth”. 2) Guide real estate enterprises to prevent and resolve risks. For the real estate industry, the meeting of the Finance Committee stressed that “we should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model”. The meeting of the finance committee will guide the development of credit supply, resolve the risks of real estate enterprises, and promote the follow-up steady growth policies, which will contribute to the repair of market expectations.
The license of financial holding company has been officially implemented, and the competition pattern of licensed institutions will continue to improve. Last week, the central bank issued the first two financial holding company licenses, CITIC Group and Beijing Financial Holding, marking a new stage in the development of financial groups. It is expected that the follow-up relevant supporting documents and implementation rules will be gradually issued, more financial holding licenses will be gradually implemented, financial holding companies that do not meet the establishment requirements and have large problem risks will gradually withdraw, and the competition pattern of licensed financial holding companies will continue to improve.
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) disclosed in the 2021 annual report: big wealth management had a good start and its profitability improved steadily. In 2021, the company’s revenue increased by 14% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth. Specifically: 1) “volume increase and price stability” drove the company’s net interest income to increase by 10.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate improved month on month. Thanks to cost control and asset structure optimization, the net interest margin remained basically stable. 2) The rapid growth of handling fee income from wealth management, asset management and custody business led to a year-on-year increase of 18.82% in medium income and 26.66% in other non interest income. Non interest income accounted for 38.44% of the revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 2.14 PCT; Reflected in the transformation of the big wealth management business model, the contribution of non interest income has been increasing, and the company’s operation has become lighter. The overall quality of assets continued to improve, risks in the real estate sector were released smoothly, and full caliber provisions were sufficient.
Investment suggestion: from the perspective of policy, considering the current economic pressure in China, it is expected that the steady growth policy is expected to continue to make efforts in real estate and infrastructure investment, driving the expected repair of the market. From a fundamental point of view, the industry performance is uncertain, and the potential adverse pressure is small. The accelerated transformation of financial management business will contribute to new profit growth points. From the perspective of capital, the proportion of institutional heavy positions held in the sector is at a historically low level, and there is little room for further reduction. The current sector is only 0.59 times the static Pb valuation, which is at a historical low. We believe that the credit easing policy continues to work and the valuation repair market of the banking sector is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to select banks with customer base, sales channels and product service system first mover advantages in the field of wealth management ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), high-quality small and medium-sized banks with location advantages and market-oriented system mechanism ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , etc.).
Risk tip: the economy stalled and went down, and the real estate regulation policies and regulatory policies changed unexpectedly.
